Forex/Futures ST for Week 09/02 - 09/07

greenback

I'll try to start the weekly threads on the Sun's to get us all prepared.

Overall, the market was in wait and see mode last week, apparently for the big Ben to talk. So far, market big shots have got what they wanted: a promise of more QE, i.e. more bond buying, as strongly indicated by the price actions of bonds and GOLD.

Sept will turn out to be an eventually month with a FOMC meeting and many EURO events. So I don't know whether we will have the pre-election price pattern any more. Let's wait and see and remember the surprises will be on the up side more often after a correction. So you want to be more vigil if shorting various assets, forex excluded.

Let's start with bonds.

Both ZB and ZN have broken out of the bottom, their 100% measured move targets are clearly the previous highs. So I would watch for a dip to buy in this week while they are in consolidation.

greenback

Now GOLD and CRUDE:

GOLD is on the way to realize the 100% of the multi-bottom breakout, the light fibo 100% level, 1717. In the shortest term, it has broken out again from a small bottom, 100% target is 1711. As we have reviewed before, the safer trading in GC is to wait for a consolidation after a breakout that always follows to establish the long position.

CRUDE has finished the correction by showing its strength again. The 100% target is 99. It's in the process of consolidation. Let's wait for it to finish to establish the long position.

Will update the stop loss when establishing the long positions.

greenback

Stocks are similar to other risky assets, only with a smaller pattern, 100% targets pointing to new high ...

greenback

EURO is consistent with the risky assets, 100% target in the range of 1.27 ... but AUD is apparently weak due to the Chinese data, reached the target made in last week. JPY is also heavy, but the pattern is small, pointing to the previous low.

greenback

See you tonight!

90ufo

Thanks!  always great help.

我不trade crude, 据说summer driving season finish, crude seasonality bearish-bias.

源济

胡同儿串子

greenback 发表于 2012-9-3 02:41 PM
Now GOLD and CRUDE:

GOLD is on the way to realize the 100% of the multi-bottom breakout, the ligh ...

胡同儿串子

90ufo 发表于 2012-9-3 03:13 PM
Thanks!  always great help.

我不trade crude, 据说summer driving season finish, crude seasonality ...

考虑进中东伊朗的因素，有变数，总感觉crude不好做。。。

greenback

90ufo 发表于 2012-9-3 07:13 PM
Thanks!  always great help.

我不trade crude, 据说summer driving season finish, crude seasonality ...

Thanks for the reminder! I'll keep a close eye ...

greenback

胡同儿串子 发表于 2012-9-3 07:41 PM
考虑进中东伊朗的因素，有变数，总感觉crude不好做。。。

Good point!

greenback

I want to clarify one important issue in trading CL ... The leverage is $1000 for every $1 move in the price! So make sure you are aware of the risk and reward well before placing your orders. Maybe it's not a big deal if you look at the average price, around $100.

胡同儿串子

greenback 发表于 2012-9-3 04:41 PM
I want to clarify one important issue in trading CL ... The leverage is $1000 for every $1 move in t ...

yes, sometimes it can get very very volatile, and take the stop with big loss, I've been there!

MFTHT

greenback 发表于 2012-9-3 08:41 PM
I want to clarify one important issue in trading CL ... The leverage is $1000 for every $1 move in t ...

可以做mini-CL: QM
还有几个IB的迷你：
HO--QH
RB--QU ?
GC--YG
NG--QG
SI--YI
ZC--YC
ZS--YK
ZW--YW
当然，还有ES, EMD, NQ, YM, TF, M6A, M6B, M6E.

MFTHT

对了， VIX还有个mini: VM. 从来没碰过，因为TOS没有图。

greenback

There seems to be a double-top breaking down in ZB and ZN is also in danger, but the pattern is very small, so not sure this is a consolidation or now, but let's see where the consolidation/pull back will go first.

kdkboy

看AUD图，突然觉得MM像在布局，前不久，在中国经济有可能不好的情况下，AUD依然新高到1.6；在众人都认为AUD强势时，又突然领先跌倒1.24，之后才爆出澳洲经济不好的消息

同样也是再TLT，半年前跌下110，重要支撑，然后反手迅速拉高到131，其运筹，布局都是上上品啊

难怪说TA不管用，FA也重要。

接下来，我就看MM怎么布局EUR了，顺便看银子，石油

greenback

MFTHT 发表于 2012-9-3 09:20 PM
可以做mini-CL: QM
还有几个IB的迷你：
HO--QH

Good point! Thanks for sharing!

greenback

kdkboy 发表于 2012-9-3 10:31 PM
看AUD图，突然觉得MM像在布局，前不久，在中国经济有可能不好的情况下，AUD依然新高到1.6；在众人都认为AUD ...

Well, it's too hard to guess the black box mechanism. Let's pretend nothing behind. We are simply developing a empirical rule/theory/framework, whatever, and as long as it works most of the time, it's fine. We're relying on money management to make consistent profit over the time.

MFTHT

/KC差不多该上冲了：前面有HH, 时间差不多了。如果本周收阳，应该可以进了。止赢可在200附近，值得关注。
我是急性子手痒，上周冲进去了，现在水下。

SB周线现在也值得关注。