两张图，你信谁？还是信自己吧！

ctcld

市场上一直存在一种观点，认为选举年应该大量买入股票。

然而，瑞信经济学家Harley Bassman在研究了历个选举年的股市变化周期后，对这一观点进行了修正。

Bassman通过研究发现，选举年的股市并非一直上涨，而是会产生较大波动。这种波动在8月份达到谷底，然后再10月份达到峰值并一直延续到11月选举。

所以，如果下图真的能够作为参考，8月买入，10月卖出或许是选举年的股市最佳投资策略。



另一方面，

With the Republican National Convention underway, the Democratic Convention next week, and less than 70 days until Americans take to the polls, typical election year trends suggest we could be nearing another market downturn. So far this year, the S&P 500 is up 12% and sitting a few points below the 2012 closing high of 1419.
But according to Bespoke Investment Group, a short-term pullback is looming. The kings of data mining have tracked the S&P 500's election year performance since 1928. They're focusing simply on past performance to gauge how the market will move through year-end.

"Based on that pattern, you see a rally through the end of the summer...and then from Labor Day to Columbus Day you tend to see a pullback in the market," says Hickey.
During election years since 1928, the S&P 500 has dropped an average 1.95% during the period between Labor Day to Columbus Day, according to Bespoke data. For all years since 1928, the S&P averages a 0.63% drop during the same period.
"You can foresee this pattern holding up because once we get into September it's going to be the election in full gear, and you're going to see talk out of Europe, those leaders are back from vacation," Hickey explains of the near-term bearish catalysts.
But after one last sell-off, the trend turns positive into year-end. In a recent Bespoke note they say, "if the market can do half as well as it has done in the final four months of past election years, investors will have a smile on their faces when 2013 rolls around!"
Get ready for the gloves to come off in the U.S. election and polish up on your favorite European acronyms and mash-up phrases likes, EFSF, ESM, ECB, Grexit, Spailout, y mas. If history is your guide, you might consider hanging out on the sidelines before getting back in for a fourth quarter rally.




共同结论：今年的新高还没到，这也是我的2C。

bucks

patiently waiting for the HIGH

QWE

最后这张图，8，9月向上后，再回调下跌，跟我想象差不多，我也在等这个大跌，但年底是否有新高，值得怀疑。今年4月的顶跟8，9月的顶差不多高，值得注意，双顶

源济

silicon_beaver

rightonmoney

如果图和我的2c吻合，咋办呢？

bububaba

blackrock