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发表于 2012-4-16 10:17 AM
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ZT from TOS
It has been almost one full year since natural gas (UNG) closed higher for two or more consecutive price bars on the weekly chart. In fact, of the last eight weekly price bars, UNG has closed higher only once. To say the commodity is in a downtrend would be an understatement, however it might be a good idea for traders to put the ETF in the long column of the swing trade watch list now that spring is underway. Please observe the chart below.
UNG peaked at 511.12 in July of 2008 and has since lost 97% of that value. Beside a few bounces higher along the way, it has almost been a straight shot down. We did notice however, that since the peak of 2008, each spring has produced at least one of these bounces. All three of them are noted on the chart above.
We have yet to see a bounce materialize this spring, but if the pattern holds, at least one should occur before mid June. Keep your eyes peeled for bullish setups in UNG.
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