周末报告：Q1结束，债券资金大逃亡流入股市

ctcld

Q1结束，FUND MANAGER 换马了。象今天2：00 PM以后的债券市场大量失血来看，
本轮牛市起码还得有一个高潮。大胆预测：4月底前SPX 1450，这一波的高度在1550。

回顾历史，MFI 能决定股市的方向。资金从债券POOL流出，自然要留到股市POOL里
（因为市场看好 美国的经济数据的 改善）

YMYD。

llyynnW

9号胡同

hais

我一直很support老大你的看法的。如果说这周一是头，这真不是很能说服我的头。今天spy的走法没有多少意外。但是让我意外的是我的TNA。昨晚盘后加仓，今天盘前卖了。我想他会跌一下再上来，可是没想到今天会收红，有点意外。midcap和eem比起large cap已经下去了很多了，现在我有点犹豫是不是下星期small and large也会一起下去。我还会倾向作多，但我下周会谨慎，看周一的走法。我青蛙，说错别笑。

imtigerking

活活, 道路是曲折的, 前途是光明的.

Ed02

开小差

BRCBRC

ctcld

这里说市场看好 美国的经济数据的 改善是有根据的：


路透社/密歇根大学消费者信心指数
实际值: 76.2预期值: 74.7前值:  75.3

路透社/密歇根大学(Reuters/University of Michigan)发表的密歇根大学消费者信心指数(Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index)是评估消费者对个人收入、商业环境和购买力的信心，数据基于对数百个受访者的电话调查。路透社/密歇根大学消费者信心调查以其时效性著称，被认为是美国消费者信心中最及时的指标之一。消费者信心下降通常伴随著收入或工资下降、先于消费者支出减少。路透社/密歇根消费者信心下降被认为是经济放缓的早期迹象，因此，投资者，零售商和贸易商均关注该指标，以此衡量总体经济的健康状况。总体上讲，如数据高于预期将利好美元；反之，数据低于预期将利淡美元。

芝加哥采购经理人指数
实际值: 62.2预期值: 63.0前值:  64.0

芝加哥采购经理人指数（Chicago Purchase Management Index）是由数据编制机构（Kingsbury International）每月为美国采购经理人协会芝加哥分会公布的一个制造业数据，反映了制造业在生产、订单、价格、雇员、交货等各方面综合发展状况，它是领先指标中一项非常重要的附属指针，市场较为看重该数据，它也是反映美国制造业发展状况的晴雨表。它是全美采购经理人指数最重要的一部分，它通常在全美采购经理人指数公布之前公布，市场也往往会就芝加哥采购经理人的表现来对全国采购经理人指数做出预期。芝加哥采购经理人指数是以百分比来表示，常以50%作为经济强弱的分界点：即当指数高于50%时，被认为是制造业的扩张将支撑（或作多）美元，当指数低于50%，尤其是非常接近40%时，则有经济萧条的忧虑将压制（或作空）美元。

silicon_beaver

To help others understand COT, I added information below, obtained by google search.

COT Wiki

Another site says
Small Speculators: the individual investors, generally traders like you, and me, or what is known as the “retail trader.”  Investors who trade their own money, for their own profit and gain.

Large Speculators: generally banks and hedge fund managers, and are generally doing this type of investing using other peoples money to profit from large moves in the market.

Large Commercial Traders: generally producers such as farmers, or large factories. It's unknown that their full intention, why long, or why short.  generally different with others speculators.

Diffusion

ctcld 发表于 2012-3-30 22:59
这里说市场看好 美国的经济数据的 改善是有根据的：

Chicago PMI looks not good

silicon_beaver

A newbie question,

Three instruments, 10-year note; TLT (20-year bond); and 30-year bond.
Are three same weighted? Or some of three more important?
should I monitor them all when I watch ES/SPX?

Diffusion

silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-3-31 01:05
A newbie question,

Three instruments, 10-year note; TLT (20-year bond); and 30-year bond.

ctcld will give a professional explanation. below is my opinion

one really want to look at the whole yield curve, and it really depends on what you are looking for.

$TYX is more sensitive to inflation, so if the yield curve is led up/down by $TYX, then it means inflation expectation is up/down

$TNX is less sensitive to inflation and can be used as a good proxy to growth, so if the yield curve is led up/down by $TNX, then it means growth expectation is up/down.

and an inverted yield curve almost always means a disaster.

silicon_beaver

Diffusion 发表于 2012-3-30 23:09
ctcld will give a professional explanation. below is my opinion

one really want to look at the  ...

Xie Xie 军师,

I got these questions, mainly due to I am an ES trader. learning to trade ZN/ZB also. I was thinking TLT trend was similar to ZN/ZB and watching TLT was enough.
TNX was on radar, but seldom use it.

估盛

。。。债券POOL流出

NYQ

现在学游如鱼得水，怎么分析都有道理。

oldpigwang

不可否认，你的TLT 200MA is in an up trend. 仅仅根据一天的一个日内下跌，
我看不出1450~1500 的根据。
你说“美国的经济数据的 改善是有根据的”，我说，它的回落也以经有了根据。
根据在哪？在这里：http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... &extra=page%3D1
这个BABY 已经哭了，就绝对没人会有好日子过。GDP, Employment, PMI, all will fall bad.
虚心的问一句： 斑竹， 你的1450~1550根据在哪？
一厢情愿？

kdkboy

补充一下，哦也

BlackRock: 10-Year Yields Likely to Hit 2.75%-3% This Year
Giganto asset manager BlackRock is out with a note suggesting that the yield on the 10-year note is likely to hit 2.75-3% this year. But as for a massive crippling spike that would grind bond prices into dust? They don’t see it.

Don’t expect a big reversal or yield explosion any time soon, however. The Fed and other central banks in the developed world are fully committed to loose monetary policy to support recovering economies and raise employment … There is another buyer who will ensure rates will stay low around the word. Global pension funds and insurers are desperate for income in a world of little growth, long lives, ultra-low yields and declining supply of fixed income. This ‘structural bid for yield’ is playing out across the globe. Even if the Fed and other central banks were to run out of ammunition (unlikely), this yield-hungry pack of investors is ready to pick up the slack. The profound shift is brought about by a rapidly aging global population: The world retirement population is set to triple to 2 billion by 2050, according to the UN.

For the record, a rise to 3% doesn’t sound like a lot. But because of the freaky nature of the way bond prices move it would put a decent dent in returns. This is because of the concept referred to as “duration” by the bond geeks. It sounds like it has to do with time. But it really doesn’t. It means interest rate risk. Here’s the short version: With yields this low, prices swing wildly with relatively small changes in yields.

According to data from bond trading platform Tradeweb, the current 10-year Treasury is trading at around 2.15% yield. If yields went up to 3%, that would translate into a price loss on the bond of about 7%. Some of that would be offset a bit by interest payments, but it still wouldn’t feel good.

joep

ctcld 发表于 2012-3-30 21:42
Q1结束，FUND MANAGER 换马了。象今天2：00 PM以后的债券市场大量失血来看，
本轮牛市起码还得有一个高潮。 ...

ctcld has become a mad cow.

joep

Diffusion 发表于 2012-3-31 01:57
Chicago PMI looks not good

not as strong as in Feb, but still very strong.