周四晚灌水，大牛强势突破，散户多头还得小心。

Read0nly

俺的股票多仓今天都出掉了。唯一不顺的是公司事情太多，401K在Index Fund没出来，希望明天横盘给俺换基金的时机。对短期看顶的判断不变，即便在下周还有上冲，俺不愿冒险了。过去见利不锁，反而贪心被套的教训太多了。

说短期看顶除除了俺个人的TA外，一个重要的现象是今天的突破靠的是轧空和借力。

对于突破1260的可能俺不是没有考虑，看下图。周二的下跌及前面两次的下跌都是在诱空，因为从10月4日上来走成一个牛旗，最终的发展形态是一个俺称之为N形上升图形中最牛的情形，及横盘期不是向下或平走而是向上。按照对称原则，突破后可能的顶部在头上画的两个位置。因为其他指标看顶的缘故，俺怀疑突破后是否能够冲的那么高。



但俺的短期Timing的确遗漏掉一个重要因素，那就是许多MF的财政年底是在十月底。看下面的描述：
If you thought that a quarter was an important time for Window Dressing, October 31 is a much more critical date as it marks the fiscal year-end for most mutual funds. So these stocks that are held at that time are what will appear in the annual report for every fund.

这意味着周五和下周一的大盘位置同基金经理的年度奖金挂钩，基金有收高意愿的人为因素在里边。

借助轧空和基金的动力，主力资金可以在推高大盘的同时出货给基金和散户。
多头还是的小心，上来的快，下去也快。有利时该锁利的时候别让利溜走。

Diver

Diver

statistically, the end of Oct and the beginning of Nov were super bullish.

silicon_beaver

Read0nly

Diver 发表于 2011-10-28 01:14
statistically, the end of Oct and the beginning of Nov were super bullish.

月底到月初一般比较牛，俺赶来HT时贴过一个粗略的统计。你提到的这段可能同MF年报有关。即便大牛，这种冲法还会有回探支撑的时机上船，需要点耐心。

spicyfreak

WKN

suancai

sycamores

dzhxs3

coolboy

开小差

thx,ding

Fan8an

ctcld

If you thought that a quarter was an important time for Window Dressing, October 31 is a much more critical date as it marks the fiscal year-end for most mutual funds. So these stocks that are held at that time are what will appear in the annual report for every fund.


Very true, and normally they play the 4th Q. My firm added more funds for the clients' selections.
The other aspect you forgot is the data - Q3 GDP reversal move.

ysc

ctcld 发表于 2011-10-28 08:26
If you thought that a quarter was an important time for Window Dressing, October 31 is a much more c ...

Laoda,

I always wondering how the window dressing works? When fund managers add stocks in past few days, it still missing past 2, 3 wks performance. Even the return % is not as good as the index, fund manager just want the good performance stocks in the portfolio?

Thanks,

YSC

EagleMM

浪淘金

I think Nov. will be the good time to buy dips again, I will exit most of my positions today.
You made good calls this round, 1260. great job!

sc168

September2007

qingqing