Wake Up! - Irrational Exuberance: Another View

Whigs

There are many important differences between Japan's experience and the U.S. today. But both instances, along with the Great Depression, are classic examples of credit booms turned bust. These are fundamentally different from garden-variety recessions and expansions triggered by inventory or demand shocks.

They are supercycles in terms of both time frame and scope. They are marked by asset-price bubbles that, upon reversal, trigger financial crises as the banking system struggles to stay afloat. And importantly, these financial crises tend to occur at the start—not end—of the debt-shedding process that can take years or even decades fully to play out.

Somewhere in the early innings of this debt-shedding process, then, is where the U.S. stands today. And it is why investors and policy makers shouldn't overreact to bouts of bright economic news, like the retail-sales strength in September. The economy is hardly on the verge of a break-out performance. Any flurries of strength, in fact, only risk ushering in periods of renewed weakness.

momotalk

ultra

not understand, who can explain more.

slcgh

Whigs

ultra 发表于 2011-10-17 17:50
not understand, who can explain more.

简单些，就是说这些common sense:
1.what goes around comes around
2.there is no free lunch in the end
3.in front the natural law, people struggling against it is in vain...

股市角度：美国股市会跌到你想象不到的程度！DJIA - 3000.

silicon_beaver

Whigs 发表于 2011-10-17 13:58
简单些，就是说这些common sense:
1.what goes around comes around
2.there is no free lunch in the  ...

Dow 3000. OMG.

QWE

Whigs 发表于 2011-10-17 17:58
简单些，就是说这些common sense:
1.what goes around comes around
2.there is no free lunch in the  ...

股市角度：美国股市会跌到你想象不到的程度！DJIA - 3000.

这样太简明的一个判断，不具有可操作性。我认为贴身大盘，随行就市，SWING操作，更具有意义，就算最后跌到3000，也无所谓。只要信号见底，就抄底。一旦新一轮大牛开头，就满仓，不用在意太长远的目标。抓住几个月内的大机会更具备可操作性。

Whigs

QWE 发表于 2011-10-17 20:12
这样太简明的一个判断，不具有可操作性。我认为贴身大盘，随行就市，SWING操作，更具有意义，就算最后跌 ...

对Trader说是没什么指导意义，但对于那些Buy & Hold的人而言，这是当头棒喝。

austinjoe

suancai