SPX monthly - critical close for Oct

bucks

studied the SPX monthly chart, found something about what happened for the most significant tops in 2000 and 2007:



1) The first attack by bears was to break down MA(20) by monthly close price
2) Bulls fought back fiercely then to create a sharp rally and try to return above MA(20) in following 1 or 2 months (2000: ~ 135 points, 2007: 184 points for SPX)
3) However, both were defended back and the long-lasting and scary bear markets started ever since the failure

for current market,
1) in Sep the MA20 was taken
2) Made new low in Oct, after which a sharp rally kicked in
3) MA20 has been reclaimed as of the closing 10/14/2011
4) 150 pints has been recovered. Expect more ???

How bears and bulls fight over MA20 looks to me very critical. It may define decisively the nature of the market. Close above, bulls hold better chance to restart their party, close down, very likely it's bears' stage.

Two more weeks to say goodbye to Oct. No matter the final outcome, this month is sure to be remembered.

sunnysunny

大牛Steve

补充一下：
1.从RSI位置和延伸趋势来看，这三个阶段反弹后都在50+处，下降趋势，非常相似。
2.从MACD的死叉来看，目前已经在高位形成，因为MACD的滞后反应，所以开口较小。
3.MACD的Histogram已经进入空头区域，趋势有向下加深的方向延伸。

George25

wnd4

good points! thanks

sunnysunny

Fan8an

stocksea

ddd

An important indicator!

bucks

I went back longer to the history, and found 5 more cases in which bulls actually won 4 of them. The battle usually was determined with 2 or 3 months, but could be as long as one year like in 1988.

1981: bears won, which actually didn't lead to a bear market as scary as 2000 and 2007. (correction still ~20%)
1984, 1988, 199, 1994: bulls won
2000, 2007: bears won

Totally, within 30 years from 1981 to 2011, this kind of scenario had happened 7 times in total, and the score is 4:3 with bulls leading. Who will win the 8th battle? Will bears break it even? I can't wait to see it.

lemontree02

匪兵甲

Thanks for sharing.

cat2011

The rally is too sharp to sustainable.

ppteam

TF 10%+ up room

dzhxs3

开小差

thx, ding

ctcld

你说的2000和2007年都是在大泡泡的年代，也是牛车大游行的年代，是冒进的结果。
看图不能形而上学。现在股市的下跌是一种防御，是羊群效应。

acoust

navybean

Thanks

永恒罗马