牛牛们，为XingXing报仇的时候到了

xiamao

新高时，到时候XINGXING再现HT，

lehldk

hehe

xiamao

go bulls

mengtt

6th-Sense

xiamao 发表于 2011-10-10 07:10
新高时，到时候XINGXING再现HT，

spy needs another +200............

vlo

美股可能还有戏，但是我怀疑星大对A股的预言今年可能实现不了。

6th-Sense

vlo 发表于 2011-10-10 13:34
美股可能还有戏，但是我怀疑星大对A股的预言今年可能实现不了。

A share is not 2344.......if it can add +500 to 2844...that is the Max target of this year......+2000 to 4300, that is 5 years later......

天天向上

实在看不下去了，我也说两句：
1. Xingxing的优点是有他独到的方法和见解，在HT发表也是大家喜闻乐见的
2. Xingxing说的准不准？起码这轮美国down trend没有看到，算是miss了
3. A股算是误判了，我也在他的“砸锅卖铁。。。”后跟风操作了，现在还在水下，谁要是怀疑，我们晒trade
4. 后来再也不来HT发言了，心理承受力要加强，要向Jobs学学
总之，我还是很希望看到他常常来HT发言的，真的！

天天向上

补充一下，我的操作我自己负责，不是怪罪谁。YMYD－－》MMMD
能看到很多人的分析是我几乎天天来HT的动力。

Diver

csw2002

What happend to X!ng?

google

每一轮行情都伴随着一个,甚至多个偶像的轰然崩塌，前有大P，WavePlayer, 后有星星
俺觉得除了他们自己的原因，一多半也是被青蛙们捧杀的，耳朵里整天都是好
听的，久而久之，就忘了我是谁了

股市里survive的真谛是恐惧，恐惧,  恐惧

xiaochong

6th-Sense 发表于 2011-10-10 13:46
A share is not 2344.......if it can add +500 to 2844...that is the Max target of this year......+2 ...

咋都是44？

QWE

google 发表于 2011-10-11 11:00
每一轮行情都伴随着一个,甚至多个偶像的轰然崩塌，前有大P，WavePlayer, 后有星星
俺觉得除了他们自己的原 ...

怎么了，看错了一次两次，就不敢来了？脸皮这么薄阿。那个快手最近也不敢来了，看牛的最近都偃旗息鼓了。没必要啊，谁都有错的时候，关键是要从错误中吸取教训，逐步提高自己的胜率嘛。

google

QWE 发表于 2011-10-11 11:10
怎么了，看错了一次两次，就不敢来了？脸皮这么薄阿。那个快手最近也不敢来了，看牛的最近都偃旗息鼓了 ...

就是，赚钱才是硬道理

suncert

报仇又有何用? 输了就是输了. 他如果是按照自己的推荐操作的话, 市场上已经没有这号人物了. HOLD JPM, BAC的话还可以死撑, 其他外汇市场, 期货市场, 他已经早见外婆了.

他的方法实践证明不适合小散.

eeyo

suncert 发表于 2011-10-11 15:09
报仇又有何用? 输了就是输了. 他如果是按照自己的推荐操作的话, 市场上已经没有这号人物了. HOLD JPM, BAC的 ...

国内的漂亮妹妹是超级FED， 要是天天给星星量化宽松，
星星能不大牛吗,

csw2002

回复 QWE 的帖子

Actually, probability of getting one's trade right is at best 30% in the long run. To succeed, one needs to trade high risk to reward trade (with 30% probability of being right, you need to 3 to 1 reward to risk ratio to be ahead) and not necessarily high probability trade. At the end of the day, there are only 3 keys to success in trading: high reward/risk trade, religiously enforcing stops and proper position sizing.

QWE

csw2002 发表于 2011-10-12 03:20
回复 QWE 的帖子

Actually, probability of getting one's trade right is at best 30% in the long run.  ...

如果只有30%的交易是做对了，那就很难盈利，就算每次赢利高，但另外70%的交易输的也更多啊。可能老大是用止损降低损失，我的交易里很少用到止损，基本不用，我都是看得很有把握才出手的。另外，你说的这个30%的交易成功率，是不是指日冲啊，每天都买进卖出这种高频交易法。我是用SWING为主，等一次好机会可以是几个月或几周，交易的次数比较少

csw2002

回复 QWE 的帖子

30% accuracy rate is actually the result of a study I read many years ago conducted on a major broker's customer records. It would include day traders, swing traders, position traders and everything in between. That study was conducted on trading records from 1992 to 1998 which was quite a bullish period except for the fall in 1998 (when Asian Financial Crisis, Russian Rubble default and LTCM hit the market). That's why 95% of traders lose money over the long run. It is my personal belief that stops are absolutely essential on leveraged positions. On the other hand, if you trade only non-leveraged, you may be able to get away with not having stops.

To make a profit given such stacked odds, I only look for trades that give me at least 5 to 1 reward to risk ratio. For example, I saw the Oct 4 false break-down on a mature trading range (from 1100 to 1210) and I know that such false breakout on mature trading range usually results in a fast move to the other side of the range. I went long on ES 1105 with 10 point stop gunning for 1205. That is a 10 to 1 reward to risk trade. I gave it a 10 point stop because should ES trade back below 1100, my trade proposition of it being a false breakout would have been wrong. Given that I only trade set-ups that have at least 5 to 1 RR ratio, my edge is 58%. That is, in the long run, I should get 58% return. Of course I am no where near that because my success rate is lower than 30% and there are certain trades that I have taken where my estimated RR ratio didn't pen out. On the other hand, if you have high accurary rate combined with high reward to risk trade, you should make a fortune in a short amount of time.