09/29/2011 Market Outlook (The 3rd time is the charm)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

今天没有结论，看明天吧。下面的图应该说明了我看到的，第三次碰线强烈拉起，问题是这第三次是不是会不一样？根据下面不同的走法，会有不同的结论（废话！），因此，我猜，是牛是熊，很快就要见分晓了。明天如果不是大涨特涨的话，下周开始起，熊熊会多一道统计上的保险，我周末会谈，75%的机会下周会跌破今天的low，此外今后几周甚至更长将会是熊熊的safe zone。当然，again前提是明天不大涨特涨，比如高开20点，然后又长个30点之类的，老实说，我真是怕了。明天大涨特涨了，那么熊熊的safe zone可能会推迟到下下周，我下下周再说，总之，你们就是要天天来看我的报告就对了，呵呵。

 

图形上讲，今天的黑棒棒暂时很难做顶或者底的解释，所以也是要看明天。

 

如果硬要猜明天的话，我只能说，明天有一点点点点bearish biased，理由除了According Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q3, Dow down 9 of last 13以外，还有以下两个理由，都不是很solid，所以我只是说有一点点点点bearish biased：

IBM连着3个反转棒，因此top了。这东东在INDU里站了12.20%，所以如果这东东挺不住的话，多半INDU也好不到哪里去。

 

跟SPY的黑棒棒不太一样，UUP的两个空心红棒棒看着像是bottom，大家知道米纸涨，股市多半是跌的。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q3, Dow down 9 of last 13, massive 4.7% rally in 2008.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 3 of 3 SELL Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

Forevergreen

Forevergreen

curiosity2009

triestino

Masktear

1st Page!

phph

market can repeat the cycle again and again and again.

traderA

janez

Cobra,
Looks like the 4th time, rather the 3rd time. I saw 4 touch and break ups.

jdad4

福多多

coexist

Jennyahwu

Cobra, today close all of stock shows strong. thanks

silkway

sunnysunny

dodofish

oldpigwang

Cobra

janez 发表于 2011-9-29 20:03
Cobra,
Looks like the 4th time, rather the 3rd time. I saw 4 touch and break ups.

有两次touch是低开跳过，然后慢慢拉起，不算啦。我说的是3次碰线强烈反弹的情况。

Cobra

Jennyahwu 发表于 2011-9-29 20:08
Cobra, today close all of stock shows strong. thanks

最后几分钟长那么多，一般是很emotional的，不能算数。明天怎么走50对50。

janez

Cobra 发表于 2011-9-29 20:20
有两次touch是低开跳过，然后慢慢拉起，不算啦。我说的是3次碰线强烈反弹的情况。

Aug 28, Sep 6, 12, today.  4 times, which one does not count? I am still not clear. thx