let me guess Thursday Sept 29th

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-9-28 06:01 PM

two options :

1. gap down 150+, then bear will control mid-term situation, Aug low will break again ; the possibiility is less than 10% .

2. flat open and close in green. possibility is higher than 90% .

trapped long position and newly bot short position (partial hedged, not enough).

BSW · 发表于 2011-9-28 06:11 PM

So, I guess the ratio of your trapped long position and your newly bot short position is about 9:1 (90%:10%). Haha.

shyshark · 发表于 2011-9-28 06:23 PM

小财虫 · 发表于 2011-9-28 06:33 PM

mengtt · 发表于 2011-9-28 07:13 PM

mengtt · 发表于 2011-9-28 07:18 PM

wyjhyd · 发表于 2011-9-28 07:27 PM

Fan8an · 发表于 2011-9-28 07:28 PM

美眉妹 · 发表于 2011-9-28 07:34 PM

dodofish · 发表于 2011-9-28 07:42 PM

coexist · 发表于 2011-9-28 07:56 PM

mayoutu · 发表于 2011-9-28 08:11 PM

当时惘然发表于 2011-9-28 19:01
two options :

1. gap down 150+, then bear will control mid-term situation, Aug low will break aga ...

90% 和10% 没有意义，因为没有样本空间。否则，你的back test 有多少？什么样的情况下？

如果没有的话，我可以说99%和1%，99.9999%和0.0001%……

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-9-28 08:48 PM

Hohoho ! First target is 1210 !

I am not mad. I am serious of it, if German vote pass.
If German vote failed , then open low jump green.
YMYD

spo · 发表于 2011-9-28 09:06 PM

当时惘然发表于 2011-9-28 21:48
Hohoho ! First target is 1210 !

I am not mad. I am serious of it, if German vote pass.
...

qnxly · 发表于 2011-9-28 09:19 PM

ruoli · 发表于 2011-9-28 10:23 PM

donalan · 发表于 2011-9-28 10:28 PM

Diver · 发表于 2011-9-28 10:51 PM

qianshui · 发表于 2011-9-28 10:58 PM

Elephant · 发表于 2011-9-29 05:30 AM

股市里发生的基本都是小概率事件

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