Frog Talk 2011-09-20 Dr. Copper Giving Hints?

yaobooyao

今天的股市没有什么可说的了，上涨、下跌全在新闻消息驱动，明天有FOMC meeting memo 出炉，股市交易量不大，投资者都谨慎等待市场对可能的FED 刺激的反应。
图上看也是可上可下，模棱两可。

盘中曾经贴了一幅SPX 和铜的相关性的比较图，这里更新一下。铜价最近一路下滑探出新低，股市却振荡反复挣扎向上。如果Dr. Copper 真的是经济基本面的领先指标，那对股市可不是好兆头。如果把铜价的下滑完全归咎于最近美元的强力升值，似乎牵强些，似乎基本面的需求萎缩导致铜的需求降低才是主要的原因。还有，铜矿FCX 今天是完全跌破了技术图形，我是宁可相信基本面萎缩这个解释。

市场如此的振荡，我要减少交易的次数，保留现金，等待真正的swing trade signal 出现。

Fan8an

Fan8an

niufen88

thanks for sharings

austinjoe

tang1688

源济

ninemao

I am on your side.

hunting

sooners

回复 yaobooyao 的帖子

cyu163

回复 yaobooyao 的帖子

耐心的等你的信号....

谢谢

everest001

chickencoop

老大（们），教教我在stockcharts上怎么overlay俩个ticker。

shyshark

紫荷

谢谢您的分析！我在看FCX的1小时和4小时图，请问您觉得FCX有点底背离的迹象吗？谢谢！不知道今天最后一小时的巨量长T型K线包含的是何用意。

bucks

Yao da, it's not easy to interpret how copper leads SPX in certain circumstances. But when SPX makes lower low while copper failed to do so, it looks a good chance of a significant bottom, which unfortunately is not the case here yet.

I am afraid the markets will repeat Dec. 2007, in which the copper formed a double bottom when SPX tried to break up instead. After that, copper bounced back while SPX sold off sharply and then recovered some. A  few months later, both of them crashed to deep abyss.

bucks

put FCX onto my watch list, which may be a good bottom shopping candidate within one or two months

bucks

回复 chickencoop 的帖子

go to "indicators", select "price", enter ticker, choose "behind price" in the field of "position"

chickencoop

bucks 发表于 2011-9-21 00:35
回复 chickencoop 的帖子

go to "indicators", select "price", enter ticker, choose "behind price" in  ...

thank you!

jymlo88