08/31/2011 Market Outlook (Key Day Tomorrow)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

明天很关键，不能有较大的跌幅，否则就是price overlap，证明是ZigZag反弹而不是什么惊人的impulse wave up。我没有充分的证据证明明天会大涨还是大跌，所以只能看明天了，只就目前搜集到的证据看，稍稍对牛牛不利一些，明天回调的可能性比较大。

 

下面的图是今后可能的走法，连续两天盘中的pullback都被拉起，明天如果盘中再发生pullback的话，最好不要指望再拉起了，因为the 3rd time is the charm。

 

有三个理由支持上面关于今后走法的推测，他们虽然不足以100%确定上面的走法，但其可能性也已经无法忽略了。

• NYMO不可能无限制上涨，终有回调的时候，而一旦开始回调，其幅度都不会小。

 

• OEX Put Call Ratio surge，从下图看，如果是在涨了一段时间后发生的话（红线），多半意味着会有一个至少短期的回调。

 

• VIX两根反转棒看着有反转的可能。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH TUESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

• August’s next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 14 years.
• First trading day in September, S&P up 11 of last 15, back-to-back huge gains 1997 and 1998, up 3.1% and 3.9%.

Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 3 of 3 SELL Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term UP 5 of 6 *NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken. EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN *1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought. DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold. XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken. IYR & Weekly DOWN   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

当时惘然

thank you

当时惘然

当时惘然

First 3 !

当时惘然

add more short positions if 123+ again !

开小差

thx, ding

当时惘然

•First trading day in September, S&P up 11 of last 15, back-to-back huge gains 1997 and 1998, up 3.1% and 3.9%.

hence, today should be another doji. If not, then huge up 2% again.

like2swing

1st page. thanks.

try_again

Thanks

nanosensor

Thanks

n748

I'm happy, up or down, either way.

If it continues going up, then unload some trapped positions. Otherwise, load more if the pullback is deep, say a retest of 1120 and if it holds.

当时惘然

http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... p;highlight=farm%2B

Sept 2nd is NFR day !

Laoda

thanks!

jy1029

Jinan90

谢谢。今天又过山车了， 账户从+850 到-200 到收 +130

vicvic

nasa1100

大牛Steve

stonehorse

EagleMM