08/27/2011 Market Outlook (Symmetrical Triangle or Rising Wedge)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-8-27 12:35 PM

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

没有新内容，所以没有兴趣的，看一下下面的可能的走法就可以了，其他就免了吧。唯一能改变我关于最终8月9号的lows会破的看法的是，猛烈突破，然后回测（如果有的话）在高于8月17号的highs那里就结束，既所谓的no overlap。当然，我不能排除大盘反弹一两个月后才去测试8月9号的lows的可能，即下图中Rising Wedge的走法。操作上，见下表，由于short-term is up，外加两个毛豆都是buy，因此我目前暂时更乐意long一些（非常小心的那种），直到short-term变为down为止。

我个人始终顽固地坚持认为the low was in的可能性非常非常非常非常非常小：

七月底到八月初的下跌实在太猛了，一般这样规模的下跌都是3 legged，目前怎么看都少了一条腿。

NYMO还是没有visible positive divergence。

对比过去从底部开始的反弹，周五的盘中pullback，太大了点，因此很可能这仅仅是个ZigZag反弹。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH TUESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

August’s next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 14 years.
First trading day in September, S&P up 11 of last 15, back-to-back huge gains 1997 and 1998, up 3.1% and 3.9%.

Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate	3 of 5 SELL	4 of 5 NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term	UP	6 of 6 NEUTRAL

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	DOWN
IWM & Weekly	DOWN
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN	4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	DOWN	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly	DOWN	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken.
IYR & Weekly	DOWN
XLB & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

RedCedar · 发表于 2011-8-27 12:37 PM

RedCedar · 发表于 2011-8-27 12:38 PM

小兵 · 发表于 2011-8-27 12:42 PM

sexydaytrader · 发表于 2011-8-27 12:42 PM

永恒罗马 · 发表于 2011-8-27 12:44 PM

RedCedar · 发表于 2011-8-27 12:49 PM

Thanks Cobra!!! Have a good weekend!

COS · 发表于 2011-8-27 12:50 PM

mayoutu · 发表于 2011-8-27 12:53 PM

Fan8an · 发表于 2011-8-27 12:55 PM

balto · 发表于 2011-8-27 01:01 PM

aimei · 发表于 2011-8-27 01:04 PM

for 1st page

dudu · 发表于 2011-8-27 01:09 PM

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-8-27 01:14 PM

Ding

bilko540 · 发表于 2011-8-27 01:15 PM

小鸟 · 发表于 2011-8-27 01:20 PM

traderA · 发表于 2011-8-27 01:35 PM

c3456 · 发表于 2011-8-27 01:35 PM

greenback · 发表于 2011-8-27 01:43 PM

oldfox · 发表于 2011-8-27 01:46 PM

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[技术分析] 08/27/2011 Market Outlook (Symmetrical Triangle or Rising Wedge)

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