Oversold But Not Oversold Enough...

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Weekly Market Commentary: Oversold But Not Oversold Enough...
转自:　http://www.markets.fallondpicks.com/　

Markets took another step down. Volume dropped from the prior week, as Nasdaq, S&P and Russell 2000 stochastics reached the oversold mark. However, the week failed to end with a bullish candlestick, so there isn't a strong case for a market bottom (at least on the weekly time frame).

With the loss of 2,535 the next level to aim for is a thick band of support at 2,125. The coming week may see this edge a little closer - very little for bulls here.

Nasdaq:

The Nasdaq 100 is also stuck in a bit of a no-mans land, although it still 'bear trap' if it was to close the week above 2,130.

Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX)

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents saw a modest loss on the week, but the gap is glaring.

Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMPQ)

The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA lingers below 10% for a second week. Shades of 2008 bottom - which wasn't the true market bottom.

Nasdaq Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NAA50R)

Small Caps remain in disarray. Caught between 760 resistance and 595 support. A test of 595 looks the more likely outcome.

Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT)
While the S&P is looking towards 1,010.

S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX)

For next week, look for more early week selling.  The challenge comes in the latter part of the week to see if bulls can recover any incurred losses. Until buyers make a show there is little to get excited about here.