07/22/2011 Market Outlook (7 Days Rule)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-7-23 04:24 PM

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

没有什么新东西，不管周五收盘后debt ceiling的消息的话，图形看，应该说很bullish。

周五的Trading Signals里已经说了，简单得从工会谈判的方式来看，不到8月2号deadline，是不可能有deal的，因此本周末大概不会有好消息了，也因此不清楚周一市场是否将延续周五盘后的pullback。但是，不管怎么样，周一最后最好能收绿，因为根据7 days rule，就是说从底部开始的strong push up一般是7天里至少涨6天，我们已经跌了一天了，所以按理下周初应该连长三天，也就是说周一该绿，否则07/18的low最终是要被跌破的。

最近市场比较乱，因此再简单的总结一下我目前的active outlook：

我的短期和中期的结论见下面的ACTIVE BULLISH/BEARISH OUTLOOK，简单的说，就是July应该close green，此外SPX应该会有new high（不一定是July），而短期，我的结论是会有pullback。究竟哪个对，或者全对，下周就可能见分晓了。
从AAPL过去的Post ER模式看，AAPL应该会掉下来，特别是它的MACD已经way too stretch了，因此我也不认为QQQ能涨到哪里去，特别是QQQ和SOX有很明显的Divergence。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY BUT BULLISH WHOLE WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, last trading day in July, Nasdaq down 5 years straight. But from the chart below, it seems the last trading week of the month since the August 2010 was mostly bullish.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July. Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

07/20 Market Outlook: Multiple evidences arguing for more pullbacks ahead.
07/22 Market Outlook: Bearish on AAPL, therefore QQQ as well.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate	4 of 5 BUY	5 of 5 NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode.
Short-term	UP	6 of 6 NEUTRAL

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	*UP
XIU & Weekly	*UP
DAX & Weekly	*UP
TLT & Weekly	DOWN
UUP & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	*UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly	UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

wolfdoctor · 发表于 2011-7-23 04:33 PM

沙发！！

wolfdoctor · 发表于 2011-7-23 04:34 PM

第一次坐沙发啊，第二排也占上吧

wolfdoctor · 发表于 2011-7-23 04:45 PM

居然还没人。。。
再占一排。。。

benshou · 发表于 2011-7-23 04:50 PM

点广告

cc2265 · 发表于 2011-7-23 04:54 PM

thanks

jy1029 · 发表于 2011-7-23 04:57 PM

temujin · 发表于 2011-7-23 04:59 PM

thanks

windflower · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:00 PM

lilitulip · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:01 PM

thanks a lot

dbshjb · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:02 PM

surya · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:03 PM

balto · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:04 PM

源济 · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:06 PM

balto · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:07 PM

周图阳吞噬，下周还是涨的概率大。。。

azzz · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:08 PM

rocky · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:18 PM

老大辛苦了

Forevergreen · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:21 PM

ysc · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:30 PM

silkway · 发表于 2011-7-23 05:56 PM

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[技术分析] 07/22/2011 Market Outlook (7 Days Rule)

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