07/19/2011 Market Outlook (Huge Up with Poor Breadth)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:35 PM

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

今天的huge up是否意味着此后很牛很牛，我还没有看到足够的证据，因此要等等看再说。短期我暂时做牛，但是还hold short position，哪边赢，我就往哪边加仓。

今天的问题是SPY up 1.6%+但却不是Major Accumulation Day，就是说breadth有点弱。SPY up 1.6% and NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume < 6, buy at today’s close sell 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 days later for the last 2,000 trading days，从下面的测试结果看，后面一周都不是很牛的样子。此外，从图中红棒棒发生的位置看，好像下面比较震荡，没有直线上涨的情况。所以，光看今天的表现，还无法作出很牛很牛的结论，要等等看。

另一个等等看的理由是AAPL。昨天提过，AAPL ER后就是放焰火，涨上去掉下来。此外，今天还多了一个问题，就是MACD太高了，这个也是说AAPL会掉下来。AAPL在Nasdaq 100中占12.23，如果AAPL表现不好的话，QQQ也不会好到哪里去。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after July expiration, Dow down 7 of last 12, 2007 –4.2%, 2008 –4.3%, but up 4.0% in 2009.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July. Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

07/18 Market Outlook: 2 Major Distribution Days within 5 days means rebound then more selling thereafter.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate	3 of 5 BUY	5 of 5 NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term	*UP	6 of 6 NEUTRAL

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	DOWN
UUP & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly	UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

Ahaha · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:37 PM

本帖最后由 Ahaha 于 2011-7-19 20:45 编辑

Ding! Sofa!

I think APPL will open around 390-395, then drop to 385. close at 389 tomorrow. Just guess for fun.

Ahaha · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:37 PM

本帖最后由 Ahaha 于 2011-7-19 20:47 编辑

Ding! 板凳。

SPX opens around 1330, then drop to 1320. close at 1323. just guess for fun.

Ahaha · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:38 PM

Ding! 地板。

dsp · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:39 PM

thanks.

vicvic · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:41 PM

Bencat · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:41 PM

yes,

"哪边赢，就往哪边加仓。"

oldfox · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:42 PM

IMeMyself · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:44 PM

thanks

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:45 PM

明后天本人基本不打算交易，所以不担心了

jcs · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:50 PM

spy2011 · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:51 PM

waterwater · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:52 PM

jy1029 · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:53 PM

sooners · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:55 PM

回复 Cobra 的帖子

try_again · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:56 PM

Thanks Lao da

snowlover · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:57 PM

回复 Cobra 的帖子

Thanks

大牛Steve · 发表于 2011-7-19 07:59 PM

美眉妹 · 发表于 2011-7-19 08:00 PM

{:8_492:}

dbshjb · 发表于 2011-7-19 08:02 PM

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[技术分析] 07/19/2011 Market Outlook (Huge Up with Poor Breadth)

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