07/18/2011 Market Outlook (Rebound then More Selling?)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND BUT CHANCES ARE HIGH MORE SELLING THEREAFTER

不确定明天是否继续反弹，不过几率稍为大一点点点点点，还没有跌完。下面的图是主要理由，2 Major Distribution Days within 5 trading days，看起来只有两次例外(2/13 = 15%)，是exactly bottom，其他都是后面还有的跌。当然有9 out of 13 (69%)的机会明天继续反弹。

 

下面的图是我不太确定明天是否继续反弹的理由，虽然上面说了，明天有69%的机会反弹，主要是chart pattern看起来像是Bear Flag，特别是RSP领跌。硬要凑明天收绿的话，那么我猜明天早上再次探底，然后反弹收绿。

 

明天的重头戏是盘后AAPL的ER，我相信没人怀疑AAPL的ER会不好，不过提醒一下，AAPL ER后的情况是放焰火，冲上去然后掉下来，整个2009年以来就一次例外。顺便说，这个其实也意味着大盘会rebound then more selling thereafter。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after July expiration, Dow down 7 of last 12, 2007 –4.2%, 2008 –4.3%, but up 4.0% in 2009.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
• 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP   SSEC & Weekly UP   EEM & Weekly DOWN XIU & Weekly DOWN DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly DOWN   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN IYR & Weekly UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful. XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

wxw

Jinan90

c3456

福多多

look

顶

n748

n748

I prefer to see continuing selling then rebound.

weigoodone01

bucks

temujin

thanks

葡萄柚

希望明天能反弹！

bucks

I like Cobra's evil plan of drop first at open and then starting rebound. That's what I expect too

xixi77

first page?

yaobooyao

ES 今天看起来也不是很好看，今天日内低点1292 ，破了7/12 的1295 低点，出新低。

下午收盘的时候1301 点水平，可以看到是日内几次三番反弹的支撑水平变阻力，明天如果不能爬上去，则要再次测试下边的通道下沿支撑点位（1290～ 1285），即使爬上去，通道上沿的阻力线大概在1305左右，也很难有所作为。



应该注意BAC 今天有效跌破$10 的整数支撑了。



XLF 看起来，今天接近前期$14.5 的低点支撑，如果跌破，下面支撑在$14.20 (S2),  $13 (S3)。

大牛Steve

soulvirus

oda

jy1029

Thx

jcw