07/13/2011 Market Outlook (No Title)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

今天没啥好说的，不确定大盘在干啥。Chart pattern看着反弹好像还少一腿，特别是ChiOsc还比较低，不过如果看Global ES的话，已经是2 legs up了，加上现在AH暴跌，可能明天fulfill 07/12 Market Outlook call，lower close ahead的可能性比较大。现在officially，short-term是confirmed downtrend，不过intermediate-term，Cobra Impulse System还是uptrend，但with no position。顺便说，周五seasonality is bearish，此外如果本周OE week red的话，下周比较大的几率是至少还会有个lower low，总之，形势暂时对牛牛不利。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY BEARISH FRIDAY, BEARISH JULY EXPIRATION WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before July expiration, Dow up 6 of last 7.
2. July expiration day, Dow down 6 of last 10, off 390 points (4.6%) in 2002.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
• 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Market is a little overbought, could see pullback soon.
• 07/08 Market Outlook: Could see some weakness the next week.
• 07/12 Market Outlook: Lower SPX close ahead.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP   SSEC & Weekly UP   EEM & Weekly UP XIU & Weekly DOWN *TOADV MA(10) too high. DAX & Weekly UP   TLT & Weekly DOWN   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP Symmetrical Triangle? USO & Weekly UP   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly UP IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

n748

sofa

面瓜

最近来得有点早啊。

n748

excited. first time

n748

n748

n748

whzdf

coolwenwen

option而言spy在130和131上有支撑，所以如果低开在这附近的话被买起的可能性不小，只有在130被打穿的情况下才能比较放心做空。spy上方的阻力就在133附近，put seller在那里好像放弃抵抗直接卖空hedge了。最后没准折腾个半天，到周五实际上是sideline。

everest001

CoolMax

Jinan90

简明扼要，适合无脑跟风

vanmark

问个傻问题，老大的短中长期各指多少？

acoust

Cobra

vanmark 发表于 2011-7-13 18:56
问个傻问题，老大的短中长期各指多少？

短期，几天甚至几小时。
中期，几周。
长期，我基本不谈，用weekly chart。

n748

回复 CoolMax 的帖子

you award people during day time, sadly I can not water on the job. Is it possible to ask some?

Cobra

coolwenwen 发表于 2011-7-13 18:52
option而言spy在130和131上有支撑，所以如果低开在这附近的话被买起的可能性不小，只有在130被打穿的情况下 ...

所以现在真的不好说。不过，有一点稍微确定，既使确实如果我感觉的那样，少了一腿up，这个up，是sell的可能性非常大。

jcs

{:8_425:}

n748

回复 n748 的帖子

Thanks Cool Laoda for your 金钱

coolwenwen

Cobra 发表于 2011-7-13 18:59
所以现在真的不好说。不过，有一点稍微确定，既使确实如果我感觉的那样，少了一腿up，这个up，是sell的可 ...

哈，老大，其实作为青蛙，俺觉得你这句话最管用:D:D。