07/07/2011 Market Outlook (More Highs Ahead)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE OVERBOUGHT

三点说明：

1. 有点点超买了，因此回调只是时间问题。
2. 今天的high不是the high，还有涨。
3. 回调是买的机会，特别是如果明天没有higher high就直接回调的话。

关于回调只是时间问题的理由，这两天我一直在说，T2122 and NYMO，今天又都超买了。

 

为什么说今天的high不是the high？因为NYHGH (Number of  NYSE Stocks at New 52-Week Highs)超过了450。下面的图是所有NYHGH超过450的历史，可能看到，仅有1 out of 28 cases，今天的high是the high，而剩下的27个case，都是在NYHGH形成negative divergence后才top的，所以结论是应该还有的涨，特别是如果明天没有higher high就回调的话，这个结论就比较有用了。

 

关于明天Non Farm Payroll day，老调重弹一下，一般是高开低走，或者低开高走。下面的统计来自Bespoke。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Market is a little overbought, could see pullback soon.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 3 of 6 *Overbought

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP NAMO overbought. IWM & Weekly UP SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly UP XIU & Weekly DOWN 1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought. DAX & Weekly UP TLT & Weekly DOWN *Bear Flag? UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly UP IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

loveorlust

shafa again?

6th-Sense

{:8_492:}

jy1029

Thanks

Diver

oldfox

temujin

thanks

balto

cartier

q2model

Thanks

oda

X中国陆军

n748

MtlJaysFan

多谢老蛇奉献，每日必读

n748

回复 Cobra 的帖子

....所以结论是应该还有的涨....

How much is there left? 20 points? or 100 points?

c3456

n748

回复 Cobra 的帖子

1.有点点超买了，因此回调只是时间问题。

what's the timeframe? 回调 in two days? or two weeks?

ysc

another high.....really want to kill all bears.......

Cobra

n748 发表于 2011-7-7 20:52
回复 Cobra 的帖子

....所以结论是应该还有的涨....

我要知道，还每天那么辛苦干啥？

Cobra

n748 发表于 2011-7-7 20:54
回复 Cobra 的帖子

1.有点点超买了，因此回调只是时间问题。

几天内。