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发表于 2011-6-26 12:47 AM
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Gold Stocks Are Poised to Pop http://seekingalpha.com/article/276559-gold-stocks-are-poised-to-pop
Gold Stocks Are Poised to Pop
Stocks, including gold stocks, have taken a beating as the market has trended downward for the last two months. Gold stocks got a further nudge down Thursday as the US released 30M barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, and the rest of the world released another 30M barrels. Oil prices went down hard. Oil took other commodities, especially inflation hedge commodities such as gold, down with it. The higher-than-expected Initial Claims number helped the market fall still further.
However, the street began to realize that 60M barrels of oil was literally a drop in the bucket. The threat of a further release of oil from the strategic petroleum reserves might serve to curb some speculation in oil, but the release of 60M barrels likely has no lasting effect on the supply and demand fundamentals of oil. As that reality was taking hold, Reuters reported that the EU, IMF, and Greece had agreed to terms for a new austerity package. After adoption by the Greek parliament this will allow Greece to get further monies from the EU to finance its government. On the rumor of this news the market rallied strongly. It is likely to rally still more today (Friday) and next week.
Gold stocks have become oversold as the overall market sold off. They have barely started to rally. If you invest now, you are likely to get a good pop up in the next week or so. Few stocks have looked great lately. All of the mutual fund managers who usually buy at the end of a quarter and the beginning of a new quarter will buy stocks they think have and will perform well. Below are the charts of a few gold stocks that should fit the bill: Barrick Gold Corp (ABX), Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (ANV), Teck Resources Limited (TCK), IAMGOLD (IAG), and New Gold Inc. (NGD). Admittedly TCK is not a pure gold play. However, it does produce significant gold, and it is a great growth company.
The 2 year chart of ABX - (click charts to enlarge):
The 2 year chart of ANV:
The 2 year chart of TCK:
The 2 year chart of IAG:
The 2 year chart of NGD:
These stocks all have strong charts. In other words, they should all be attractive stocks for end of the quarter/beginning of the new quarter buying by money managers. Some of the charts are stronger than others. The slight laggards could turn out to be as good or better investments. All have good fundamentals as you can see in the table of financial data below. The data are from TDameritrade and Yahoo Finance.
Stock
ABX
ANV
TCK
IAG
NGD
Price
$43.99
$34.57
$46.60
$18.96
$9.98
1yr. Analysts’ Price Target
$64.73
$47.61
$62.02
$26.11
$12.78
PE
12.72
98.21
18.82
18.77
21.01
FPE
9.63
21.08
8.05
15.67
18.83
Avg. Analysts’ Recommendation
1.7
1.9
2.3
1.9
1.9
5yr EPS Growth Estimate per annum
14.50%
N/A, but 2012 will be 173.30%
10.20%
64.33%
5.00%
Price/Book
2.15
5.87
1.66
2.44
2.55
Price/Cash Flow
9.46
81.11
10.99
13.53
19.8
Beta
0.53
1.53
3.73
0.54
1.08
Short Interest as a % of Float
0.63%
5.89%
0.49%
0.56%
1.86%
Cash per Share
$4.45
$3.60
$1.82
$1.27
$1.30
Market Cap
$43.96B
$3.08B
$27.53B
$7.11B
$4.00B
Enterprise Value
$46.30B
$2.79B
$30.66B
$6.85B
$3.71B
% Held by Institutions
67.09%
75.57%
69.67%
74.82%
53.29%
Total Debt/Total Capital (mrq)
23.33%
4.49%
22.66%
0.35%
13.24%
Quick Ratio (mrq)
2.33
14.71
1.39
2.24
3.56
Interest Coverage (mrq)
25.34
3.4
6.47
--
2.86
Return on Equity (ttm)
18.86%
8.15%
8.95%
13.79%
8.58%
EPS Growth (mrq)
26.72%
-95.85%
-48.68%
166.18%
86.14%
EPS Growth (ttm)
173.26%
49.00%
-44.58%
211.68%
136.40%
Revenue Growth (mrq)
19.72%
36.09%
24.85%
80.15%
68.48%
Revenue Growth (ttm)
27.86%
119.66%
24.11%
40.78%
57.46%
Annual Dividend Rate
$0.48
--
$0.6147
$0.20
--
Gross Profit Margin (ttm)
62.48%
55.83%
46.38%
52.95%
55.20%
Operating Profit Margin (ttm)
42.73%
15.63%
26.58%
36.94%
30.73%
Net Profit Margin (ttm)
30.15%
21.99%
15.62%
28.19%
23.74%
ABX is probably overall the strongest and safest of the above stocks. ANV and IAG may be the best growers, and they are showing no signs of slowing soon. TCK and NGD are interesting plays. All are probably worthy of investment.
Another that deserves mention is Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM). AEM has been developing new mines lately. It is at the point of starting to benefit tremendously from the work it has done.This should happen and shareholders should benefit. However, the sad fact is that money managers like to invest in stocks with good charts (good recent performance), especially for end of quarter and beginning of the new quarter buying. AEM’s chart looks terrible compared with most of the above charts. Money managers will probably buy AEM quietly when fewer are watching. Some may buy it at the beginning of the new quarter.
These gold stocks are long-term recommendations, but they are also a short term attempt to take advantage of the end of the quarter/beginning of the quarter buying that will likely take place for the next week or so. I do like AEM long term, but I do not like it as well as those listed above for the short term buying spree I am expecting from the money managers.
The agreement on a Greek austerity package should give the money managers a green light for the next week or so. When you see the signal light change from red to green, it makes sense to go through the light. Those who refuse to do so only tend to put their financial well being in jeopardy. You can always sell or trim positions if you later feel you are scared of the market.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in ABX, ANV, TCK, IAG, NGD over the next 72 hours.
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