06/23/2011 Market Outlook (Higher High Wanted)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:06 PM

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

没新鲜东西，该说的，今天的Trading Signals里都说了，图形看着是breakout downtrend line then pullback to test the previous low then sharp rebound，是非常常见的Trading Reversal setup。下面牛牛要做的就是breakout yesterday high，形成higher high (also called 1-2-3 formation)，从而确认the low was in。总之，现在牛牛得球，就看明天是否能临门一脚得分了。

熊熊的唯一指望，今天的Trading Signals里也说了，是ChiOsc，下面的图是最近两年来SPY 60 min ChiOsc非常高的情况，可以看到此后下跌（红线）或者盘整（蓝线）的机率要远远高于继续上涨（绿线）的机率，所以是牛是熊还得看明天，虽然感觉上熊熊好像是game over了。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

~~8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?~~
~~06/17 Market Outlook: Net % of all~~ ~~Sentimentrader’s Indicators at Extreme is very bullish.~~

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
~~06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.~~

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	COMMENT
SPY & Weekly	DOWN
QQQ & Weekly	DOWN
IWM & Weekly	DOWN	Head and Shoulders Top, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target 2166.
EEM & Weekly	DOWN	Chances of breakdown are higher.
XIU & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $17.69.
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	DOWN	Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming.
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

福多多 · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:08 PM

福多多 · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:08 PM

yask · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:09 PM

6th-Sense · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:10 PM

tomm, high---higherrrrrrrrrrrr

George25 · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:11 PM

ideall · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:11 PM

temujin · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:11 PM

bears game over

jcs · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:11 PM

oldfox · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:14 PM

cc2265 · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:17 PM

fead · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:18 PM

浪淘金 · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:19 PM

oda · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:20 PM

葡萄柚 · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:21 PM

今天市场确实很强。关键就看明天了。

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:22 PM

这报告好，最适合无脑跟

应该每次收钱

silkway · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:22 PM

balto · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:27 PM

明天就必须higher high有点强牛所难了吧，哈哈。。。下周突破1300也是牛牛可以接受的。。。

dbshjb · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:33 PM

谢谢啦！

cartier · 发表于 2011-6-23 07:34 PM

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[技术分析] 06/23/2011 Market Outlook (Higher High Wanted)

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