QE2让谁受益？

ctcld

美联储(Federal Reserve)6,000亿美元的“量化宽松”计划带给华尔街的好处是大大的。

廉价资金洪流让华尔街大银行轻轻松松捞到了利润。（上个季度，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)的交易业务每一天都在赚钱。）大宗商品投机者已经富了起来。股市一片繁荣，至少按账面来看是这样的。自贝南克(Ben Bernanke)去年8月公布第二轮量化宽松（QE2）以来，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)已经上涨约24%。

但普通投资者见到了多少好处呢？

为了对此有所了解，我联系了共同基金行业组织投资公司协会(Investment Company Institute)。他们全面监测有关普通投资者投资共同基金数额的数据。

结果如何呢？过去10个月，普通投资者并没有买进以参与华尔街的所谓繁荣。他们一直在变现。

这段时期内，他们总计从美国股票型共同基金撤资520亿美元。他们与最丰厚的收益失之交臂。最大规模的撤资（约占撤资总量的一半）是在最初的几周，刚好是股市真正开始快速上扬之前。

如果这还不够的话，那就再举一个情况。当投资者重新参与这种繁荣当中的时候，他们也并不总是能选准最佳时机。比如他们在2月和4月买入了大量股票，而当时正是股价见顶回落的时候。他们在这些交易中亏了钱，因为目前的股市已经低于上述两个月时的行情。

8000多万进入老龄的婴儿潮一代都希望在退休之前减轻在股票方面的敞口。关于QE2的作用，最多也只能说它通过抬升股价，帮助部分婴儿潮一代以稍微高一些的价格变现了手中的股票。

但这个最新分析让第二轮量化宽松大力提振了经济的说法更加站不住脚。

即使是在周二惨淡的住房销售数据公布之前，我们也已经知道目前的楼市实际上比第二轮量化宽松实施之前还要差。我们已经知道，目前的通胀率和失业率比当初更高。我们已经知道，经济增长变得更为缓慢。

让人意外的是什么呢？就连股市的所谓繁荣也跟其他情况一样，只是一种幻觉，其根源是美元贬值。如果以强势货币来衡量股市，其繁荣就显得微不足道。事实上，过去几周的股市动荡意味着，以瑞士法郎计算的话，标普500指数当前比去年8月27日仅上涨了不到2%，那正是贝南克首次公开其宏大理念的日子。

还有人想要第三轮量化宽松吗？

Brett Arends

本文译自MarketWatch

Whigs

民怨相当大。

Americans Worse Now Than When Obama Inaugurated by 44%-34% Margin in Poll

Two years after the official start of the recovery, the American people remain pessimistic about their current economic circumstances and longer-term prospects.

Fewer than a quarter of people see signs of improvement in the economy, and two-thirds say they believe the country is on the wrong track overall, according to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted June 17-20.

“Gas prices are higher, grocery prices are higher, transportation prices are higher,” says poll respondent Ronda Brockway, 54, an insurance company manager and political independent who lives in a suburb of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. “The jobs situation nationwide is very poor.”

By a 44 percent to 34 percent margin, Americans say they believe they are worse off than when President Barack Obama took office in early 2009, when the U.S. was in the depths of a recession compounded by the September 2008 financial crisis and the economy was losing as many as 820,000 jobs a month.

Higher Than Reagan

The portion of Americans who say they believe the U.S. is on the wrong track is higher than it was at any point during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, when unemployment peaked at 10.8 percent after the 1981-82 recession, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. The ABC poll showed the wrong-track number during Reagan’s first term peaking at 57 percent in October 1982. The Bloomberg poll shows 66 percent of Americans think the U.S. is going in the wrong direction now.

coexist

chuaner

早就说了，obama更黑。

Billyboy

Ed02

ctcld

现在看来，没有QE3，华尔街MM可以砸盘赚钱，小三更是无助，穷过渡吧。