06/21/2011 Market Outlook (Follow Through Wanted)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:21 PM

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

今天的大涨是否说明什么，还不好说，首先，跌了那么久，反弹到Fib 38.2%，纯属正常，其次不能排除是Exhaustion Bar的可能。关于Exhaustion Bar的讨论，请参见05/31 Market Outlook，基本上短期是必有一跌的，这个下跌的程度，正好可以用来观察是否the low was in了。

我知道，会有同学说，等到确认the low was in了就太迟了，所以操作上，明天继续涨或者回调幅度不大的话，我会做牛牛，暴跌的话，当然还是做熊熊，这是短期操作（今天的Trading Signals已经明确说short-term up了）。中期，也请参见今天的trading signals，现在officially还是向下的。

今天有两个地方值得注意：

ChiOsc太高了，所以明天早盘可能会软一软，考虑到今天的Trading Signals里提到的NYADV太高的问题，所以目前我倾向于明天可能会有回调。

ISEE Equities Only Index，好像散户很兴奋哈，250这个读数虽然不如300那么extreme，但亦是比较少见的，散户有点太牛了。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?
~~06/17 Market Outlook: Net % of all~~ ~~Sentimentrader’s Indicators at Extreme is very bullish.~~

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
~~06/10 Market Outlook: 75% to 81% chances a green next week.~~

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	COMMENT
SPY & Weekly	DOWN
QQQ & Weekly	DOWN
IWM & Weekly	DOWN	Head and Shoulders Top, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target 2166.
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $17.69.
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	DOWN	Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming.
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	DOWN	Double Top, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

IMeMyself · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:21 PM

本帖最后由 IMeMyself 于 2011-6-21 20:21 编辑

Shafa

IMeMyself · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:23 PM

maomi · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:23 PM

vicvic · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:24 PM

c3456 · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:24 PM

sooners · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:25 PM

回复 Cobra 的帖子

dbshjb · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:25 PM

Thank you very much.

maldini · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:27 PM

oda · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:29 PM

n748 · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:30 PM

sold position bought on June 8 & June 6

Im168 · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:31 PM

谢谢老大！

dreampen · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:32 PM

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:33 PM

Thanks

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:35 PM

可惜油还是 “Down”

6th-Sense · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:37 PM

{:8_492:}{:8_492:}

guelder_rose · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:38 PM

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:41 PM

Thanks

ysc · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:45 PM

美眉妹 · 发表于 2011-6-21 07:47 PM

谢谢

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[技术分析] 06/21/2011 Market Outlook (Follow Through Wanted)

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