希腊问题

ypm968

国际舆论对希腊问题的看法

Source of Greek Crisis? A Nation in Denial
Published: Friday, 17 Jun 2011 | 4:57 AM ET Text Size
By: Reuters


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European leaders are scrambling to save Greece from a debt default that could cause global economic turmoil, but the Greeks themselves seem in denial.


Panagiotis Tzamaros | AFP | Getty Images
Greek riot police officers arrest a protester during a general strike against government austerity plans.

In a reaction that is causing frustration and anger abroad, the Greeks seem more inclined to blame others for their troubles than accepting that something is deeply wrong with their country and painful medicine is urgent.

"The ordinary people don't understand the seriousness of the situation...not only for Greece, but for the whole world economy," said Jan Randolph, director of Sovereign Risk Analysis at IHS Global Insight.

Violent protests against austerity measures demanded in return for an international rescue worth billions of dollars have combined with political infighting and euro zone dithering to severely spook international markets.

No single element of society appears to have fully embraced the gravity of the situation, analysts say, and investors fear political wrangling and opposition to austerity measures could push the country into a messy default on its sovereign debt, which totals 340 billion euros ($480.8 billion).

While countries like Latvia have taken IMF medicine, suffered quick but painful contractions, and are now on paths of recovery, analysts said Greece's case increasingly threatens to resemble Argentina, which defaulted in 2001 and is still shut out of financial markets.

Greece's bailout lenders, the European Union and International Monetary Fund, have called for national consensus behind reforms to win a new financing package but in the country itself a great deal of time is spent pointing fingers rather than looking for solutions.


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Government and opposition paint each other as obstructing a solution, private company workers blame the bloated public sector, civil servants blame tax cheats and most Greeks say corrupt politicians are the main problem.

"The big problem of Greek society is the tendency to consider somebody else is responsible for everything that goes wrong," said Theodore Couloumbis, of the ELIAMEP think-tank.

"It's like someone who suffers from a severe disease and wants to know what caused it rather than taking precautions to cure it."

Painful Measures

The government has reduced public sector wages by a fifth, raised the retirement age for women, cut pensions by more than 10 percent, and cut temporary public contract jobs.

But the underlying budget problems remain.

Tax evasion is still rampant - the labour minister has estimated a quarter of the economy pays nothing - and loss-making public firms cost the state 13 billion euros from 2004 to 2009, their workers virtually immune from being fired.

"Ninety-nine percent of the Greeks' problems are of their own making," said Randolph.

"If everyone had been paying their taxes, we wouldn't have a budget deficit this high." Greeks are upset with austerity and in a poll held last month, 80 percent of respondents said they refused to make any further sacrifices to get more EU/IMF aid.

Workers at banks and state utilities heading for privatisation, public sector contractors, and even doctors have taken to the street of Athens in almost daily protests to oppose deregulation, sell-offs and liberalisaton of a highly bureaucratic economy.

Those demonstrations turned violent on Wednesday.

Analysts say another problem is that Prime Minister George Papandreou's government appears to have failed to explain to the public how desperate the situation is -- that default will have a major impact not only in Greece but beyond its borders.

French and German banks have the most exposure to Greek debt.

If Greece went under, market pressure would increase on other indebted euro zone countries such as Ireland, Portugal and maybe Spain.

A confusing internal political battle seems to have compounded the problems, with Greek politicians still eyeing a domestic audience rather than thinking of the broader picture.

That may have played a role on Wednesday, when Papandreou initiated and then broke off talks with the conservative opposition on creating a unity government to push through new austerity measures.

He later announced he would reshuffle his cabinet instead, adding to international jitters.

Pundits said there was a small chance Papandreou thought a unity deal was possible, although the conservatives have for months demanded the renegotiation of Greece's 110 billion euro bailout from the EU and IMF last year.

"I can't believe they are doing this with all the money they are being offered," one frustrated European Central banker said.

Papandreou may also have wanted to scare wavering deputies into voting for the new five-year, 28 billion euro austerity package that is an IMF and EU condition for continued aid.

"The real risk to the next package is coming from within Greece itself," J.P.

Morgan wrote in a research note.

"The prime minister is losing support within his own party, and there is huge conflict across the political spectrum and the population as a whole."

Disappointment in Europe

The confusion roiled markets globally and shocked European Union officials who have appealed for Greece's political elite to unite behind the reforms.

Analysts said it looked as if Greece was drifting away from a Latvia-style situation.

The Baltic state took an EU-IMF bailout in 2008 to avoid bankruptcy.

It imposed spending cuts and tax hikes worth about 15 percent of gross domestic product over three years, including wage cuts for teachers and health workers of up to 50 percent.

The measures triggered an 18 percent economic contraction in 2009 but Latvia's economy began growing again last year and it has returned to borrow on international markets.

By comparison, Greece managed to cut its budget deficit to 10.5 percent of GDP last year, from 15.4 percent in 2009.

But it has fallen behind on the targets it has agreed with the EU and the IMF, a result that led to the cabinet agreeing to the new belt-tightening campaign that sparked the protests.

Markets are sceptical that Greece can be saved, not least after Wednesday's violence.

Combined with resignations by several deputies from Papandreou's party and persistent differences between euro zone policymakers trying to arrange further aid for Athens, some analysts see the chances of a messy default rising.

"The protests are not going to go away and the Greeks can't deliver ...it looks like you're seeing growing divisions between the IMF, EU and ECB," said David Lea, western Europe analyst at Control Risks.

"I think we're moving inexorably to default."

Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters.


希腊民众的看法


Reproducing more of the same

By Stavros Lygeros

Thirteen months after Greece signed the memorandum, instead of solutions, the citizens see the country sinking deeper into recession, leaving more and more in a state of economic and social ruin. Hope has been replaced by despair, and this is gradually transforming into rage. Under such explosive circumstances it is fortunate that society’s rage is being channeled through the peaceful Indignant movement. But how long will that last?

In a chameleon-like change of face, the ruling elite that nurtured the kleptocracy, the waste of the state, irrationality and impunity have become the torchbearers of austerity, but only in regard to those beneath them. The more impudent among them are even wagging their finger at society. That is not to say the citizens are completely innocent, but the fish starts to stink from the head.

The same elite is acting in a provocatively selfish manner. They condemn populism and the trade unions, corruption in the civil service and tax evasion among the middle class, but never the multifaceted system of entangled interests that fed the parasites bleeding the state dry and obstructed productive activities. The plundering of state coffers is a systemic phenomenon, but it is those at the peak rather than at the base of the social pyramid who benefited the most.

For Greece to come out of the crisis it needs a restructuring of its debt and a national strategy for purging the system and promoting growth. A radical shake-up in the way the state makes money and how it spends it could save enormous amounts, while a boost to the country’s growth potential could break the vicious cycle of recession.

George Papandreou’s government has done neither. It has not only failed to reach its fiscal targets but it has also exhausted the precious capital of society’s tolerance for painful measures and reforms.

The issue, therefore, is not about erasing the deficit, but how. Doesn’t the fact that the government has hardly touched the “big fish” or the main players of the kleptocracy while at the same time placing the entire burden on the easy targets -- the wage earners, pensioners and manufacturers -- tell us something?

The inequitable division of the burden corrodes the moral foundations of the collective effort to exit the crisis, increasing instead the people’s rage and the chance of a social explosion. Furthermore, the more you try to squeeze out of an already dried-up market, the more damage you do to the country’s production dynamic, therefore simply reproducing more of the same.




Back to square one
  
By Nikos Xydakis

Any solution to the crisis currently dogging Greece is bound to be painful. Of course it is important that we understand the solution does not really depend on us anymore. We have to move on with this in mind. So let’s decide how we can rally all our fighting forces to reverse the decline and get the country back on its feet.

The most worrying sign is the ongoing fragmentation of society into rival groups fighting against each other. There is widespread mistrust and aggression is on the rise.

The magnitude of the shock has fueled fear, and, after that, anger. People have developed a tendency toward anti-political and, occasionally, anti-social behavior. As disaster strikes, the wounded and deeply disillusioned petty bourgeois are reasonably blind to their own responsibilities, they are blind to the common good, and they cannot find a common denominator or a point of convergence with their fellow citizens.

The vulgar kleptocracy, which sealed the years of false exuberance, is now yielding its toxic fruit by tarnishing solidarity, tolerance and coexistence. Everybody is looking suspiciously upon one another.

Fed by debased politicians, corrupt state officials, state-dependent and tax-evading entrepreneurs, kleptocracy squandered public finances and wrecked the sense of justice and fairness. It is now threatening the very core of social coexistence.

The crowds have, for the time being, found a peaceful outlet for their accumulated fear and anger: the ritual of the public square. In a way, they are rediscovering a sense of belonging -- even if that takes place in a context of economic misery.

But the ongoing injustice poses a threat to this fragile equilibrium. As the low- and middle-income classes continue to be hit -- now without a safety net, without faith in a common goal, without moral relief in some symmetrical burden-sharing -- it will become more and more difficult to keep within the zone of logic and moderation.

The sudden drop in living standards is bound to bring unexpected changes in mass behavior. The risk will be huge unless the political class manages to meet the popular demand for fairer burden-sharing and justice -- even at this last moment.

ekathimerini.com , Monday June 13, 2011 (16:07)  

nanosensor

Thanks for sharing!
If Greece indeed default, then we may revisit 2009 low! The world might be in panic, and who knows what will come besides the financial crisist!

ctcld

nanosensor 发表于 2011-6-18 14:53
Thanks for sharing!
If Greece indeed default, then we may revisit 2009 low! The world might be in p ...

不同意。

即便希腊DEFAULT 了，只能说是开了个欧盟小兄弟赖账的先例，对世界经济恢复有心理冲击，但无基础冲击。这和美国金融系统或美债的DEFAULT有着本质的区别。上个世纪末，阿根廷就曾大胆赖账，尽管当时再想在国际上举债比较困难，但最后还是挺了过来，现在又抖擞起精神，神态自若，一副没有任何后遗症的样子。希腊今天顶多是个阿根廷。小国就是小国，更何况乱了欧盟，对资金流向安全国家未必是件坏事。另一方面，希腊也不失雷曼，雷曼问题是无底而且突发恐慌性远大于希腊

现在WS不断制造恐怖实际是给政客们捅破美债天花板施加压力。那帮共和党的蠢猪居然为了党派利益想让美债也暂时DEFAULT一下，他们实际上是对子孙后代犯罪，因为美国不是希腊，也不是阿根廷。那个潘多拉盒子是不能打开的。

nanosensor

ctcld 发表于 2011-6-18 15:43
不同意。

即便希腊DEFAULT 了，只能说是开了个欧盟小兄弟赖账的先例，对世界经济恢复有心理冲击，但无 ...

Disagree!

It is all about confidence now! I agree that Greece is a small country, is nothing when comparing to US. But if Greece defaults then it will have a Big impact in Confidence! The world will be in panic model, and things might get out of control then! The atmosphere when Argentina defaulted is very different from now! People's confidence is very fragile now days!

dommy

ypm968

Austerity Is Self-Defeating
by Paul Krugman
June 11, 2011, 9:17 AM

Self-defeating Austerity

There’s a quite good case to be made that austerity in the face of a depressed economy is, literally, a false economy — that it actually makes long-run budget problems worse.

People like me have been hesitant to make this argument loudly, for fear of being cast as the left equivalent of Arthur Laffer — but the heck with it, I’m going to lay it out.

So here’s the outline. Suppose you slash spending equal to 1 percent of GDP. That looks like a budget saving, right? But if you do it in the face of an economy up against the zero bound, so that the Fed can’t offset the demand effects with lower rates, it’s going to shrink the economy. Let me use a multiplier of 1.4; you can adjust the numbers as you wish.

Now, a weaker economy means less revenue. Assume that every dollar up or down in GDP means $0.25 in revenue, which is conservative. Then the fiscal austerity reduces revenue by 0.35 percent of GDP; the true saving is only 0.65 percent.

Now, the government has to borrow those funds; let’s say the real interest rate is 3 percent (it’s actually much lower now). Then the long run impact of the austerity on the fiscal position is to reduce real interest payments by 0.0195 percent of GDP.

But wait: what if there are long-run negative effects of a deeper slump on the economy? The WSJ piece showed one example: workers driven permanently out of the labor force. There’s also the negative effect of a depressed economy on business investment. There’s the waste of talent because young people have their lifetime careers derailed. And so on. And here’s the thing: if the economy is weaker in the long run, this means less revenue, which offsets any savings from the initial austerity.

How big do these negative effects have to be to turn austerity into a net negative for the budget? Not very big. In my example, the real interest payments saved by a 1 percent of GDP austerity move are less than .02 percent of GDP; if the marginal tax effect of GDP is 0.25, that means that a reduction of future GDP by .08 percent is enough to swamp the alleged fiscal benefits. It’s not at all hard to imagine that happening.

In short, there’s a very good case to be made that austerity now isn’t just a bad idea because of its impact on the economy and the unemployed; it may well fail even at the task of helping the budget balance.

It’s important to realize that I’m not saying that government spending always pays for itself, and that saving money is always counterproductive. These kinds of effects are specific to a liquidity trap situation. But that’s the situation we’re in.

ypm968

Default by Greece ‘Almost Certain’: Greenspan

By Vivien Lou Chen - Jun 16, 2011 4:46 PM PT

Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman, said a default by Greece is “almost certain” and could help drive the U.S. economy into recession.
“The problem you have is that it’s extremely unlikely the political system will work” in a way that solves Greece’s crisis, Greenspan, 85, said in an interview today with Charlie Rose in New York. “The chances of Greece not defaulting are very small.”
Greek government bonds slumped, pushing the yield on the two-year note above 30 percent for the first time, as Prime Minister George Papandreou’s failure to win support for more austerity fueled speculation the European country will fail to meet its obligations. More than 20,000 people protested in Athens this week against wage reductions and tax increases, with police using tear gas on crowds and strikes paralyzing ports, banks, hospitals and state-run companies.
The chances of Greece defaulting are “so high that you almost have to say there’s no way out,” said Greenspan, who ran the central bank from 1987 to 2006. That may leave some U.S. banks “up against the wall.”
Greece’s debt crisis has the potential to push the U.S. into another recession, Greenspan said. Without the Greek issue, “the probability is quite low” of a U.S. recession, he said.
“There’s no momentum in the system that suggests to me that we are about to go into a double-dip,” Greenspan said.
Economic data released today show confidence in the expansion eroding among Americans and businesses, as unemployment remains above 9 percent.
U.S. Debt Limit
The U.S. recovery is being hindered by apprehension among businesses over the long-term outlook, and there’s nothing more for Fed policy makers to do, Greenspan said.
U.S. lawmakers are wrangling over spending cuts and budget reforms as they seek an agreement to increase the $14.3 trillion debt limit before Aug. 2, the date on which the Treasury Department said it will have exhausted its borrowing authority.
The U.S. debt issue is becoming “horrendously dangerous,” said Greenspan, who added he doubts lawmakers have another year or two to solve it.
After leaving the Fed, the former chairman founded the consulting firm Greenspan Associates and became a consultant or adviser to Deutsche Bank AG, Pacific Investment Management Co. and Paulson & Co., a hedge-fund firm that profited from the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market.
Greenspan, appointed Fed chairman by Republican President Ronald Reagan, was once described as “the greatest central banker who ever lived” by economist Alan Blinder, the central bank’s former vice chairman.
He has since been blamed for contributing to the U.S. financial crisis by keeping interest rateslow for too long and failing to regulate the mortgage market, according to critics including Allan Meltzer, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, and members of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.
To contact the reporter on this story: Vivien Lou Chen in San Francisco atvchen1@bloomberg.net

ypm968

Cramer: What a Second Lehman Could Look Like
Published: Thursday, 16 Jun 2011 | 7:15 PM ET Text Size
By: Drew Sandholm
Web Producer

Should Greece default on its debt, some fear Europe will implode. It will create an Armageddon-like scenario that many suspect will be similar to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.



For his part, Cramer said Thursday he doesn't think that will happen. He thinks France and Germany will work with the International Monetary Fund to avoid another Lehman-type situation. But the "Mad Money" host wanted to use an up day to discuss just what the "Chicken Littles" are fearing. In other words, he discussed what the worst case scenario would look like, even though he doesn't think it will happen.

First, Greece defaults and everyone stops buying bonds around Europe, including those from Ireland, Portugal and Spain. In turn, those countries default, too. Like Latin America in the 1980s, huge amounts of debt are cancelled and re-issued in the form of bonds nobody wants.

Second, the hit takes out foreign banks and we learn they had insured the government paper and the bank paper went under. It would be the European equivalent of Lehman, Bear Stearns, AIG and the like. These banks are closed or merged by the surviving countries' financial institutions. It could also be that they are nationalized outright with all common stock, preferred and corporate bonds wiped out, though the customers' accounts are preserved.

Third, huge layoffs sweep Europe and the Continent is thrown into another recession because so many banks are made insolvent by the insurance contracts they offered to struggling governments.

Fourth, Europe's recession pulls down the USA because of the tie-ins and because two or three U.S. banks had hidden exposure to Europe. The U.S. learns about the exposure too late because there still is not enough transparency and U.S. banks are still buying and insuring un-insurable risk over there. These banks are merged with healthy banks that have raised a lot of capital, but the stocks get hammered to their 2008 and 2009 lows.

Fifth, massive layoffs strike the U.S. because of Europe. The U.S. economy wasn't growing anyway, though, and the country is sinking under the weight of higher commodity prices, Washington dithering and a president, who has failed to create jobs. As the U.S. continues to sink, commodity prices plummet and construction stops due to weak demand. The industrials take a beating every day.

Sixth, money flows from risky assets to high-yielding companies that weren't' high-yielders all that long ago. Safety stocks rally because commodities collapse and margins widen. This move happens on the way down, even as corporations were prepared for the downturn. The cyclicals don't get much love, though, and fall to their 2008 and 2009 levels, as well.

Seventh, new defensive plays emerge. These stocks do well because they don't need growth. Food stocks will also do well because commodity prices have been crushed.

Eighth, because commodities have collapsed, China stops tightening and wage inflation ends. That stems the decline in industrials that have been pummeled because of fears of Chinese tightenings. These stocks can be bought with 4 percent yields.

Ninth, companies fall back to cash levels. People think that their earnings are going to collapse because of the recession. These companies can now be bought with 5 percent yields.

Tenth, the U.S. employment rate skyrockets past 10 percent. People leave the market in droves and stocks go to price-to-earnings multiples of 10 or lower. But being as the earnings aren't there, the multiples are really about 15 or so.

All said and done, it adds up to a near 63 percent pullback of the entire 6,000 point run in the Dow. The average could touch the 7,500 level, where there would be bargains galore, even though nobody would want them.

So if this plays out, Cramer noted it wouldn't be as bad as 2009. But it would be bad. Still Cramer's not buying into any of this. He actually thinks we're closer to a bottom than we are to a top.

Buffalo

回复 ctcld 的帖子

没有共和党的反对, 民主党会永远拿随便印的钞票去讨好贪婪的民众. 美元和美国就会一步一步不回头的走向深渊. 美国要回头, 就必须象西蜡一样勒起裤腰带过日子.
不要因为手里有股票就失去了判断是非的能力.

Buffalo

西蜡问题现在的症结在于西腊的民众自己. 德国和法国实际上是要西腊的民众承担所有的损失, 而他们自己犯错误的银行则不愿受任何损失. 这才是今年和去年不同的地方. 他们想default, 而且这也是今后唯一的出路. 但欧洲的政客们不愿意面对.
说实话, default可能带来短时间的冲击, 但大家很快就会意识到这是好事, 也是意料之中的事. Bond市场已经price-in了89%的default的出现.
一个人已经无药可就了, 就要准备后事, 天天靠氧气的日子不会长久, 大家也厌倦了.
让她去吧, 美丽的西腊.

ctcld

Buffalo 发表于 2011-6-19 00:50
回复 ctcld 的帖子

没有共和党的反对, 民主党会永远拿随便印的钞票去讨好贪婪的民众. 美元和美国就会一步一 ...

没搞错啊，是共和党的小布什和葛老头堆砌了巨债和开启了印钞机，把美元一路贬到现在的田地。
达康泡沫破灭，911可能是理由，但全面减税，伊拉克战争，放松金融管制导致的金融风暴，整个把美国
搞空了。说民主党会永远拿随便印的钞票去讨好贪婪的民众是不公平的，因为所谓的救市也是始于共和党的
小布什时代，不过救的不是贪婪的民众，而是贪婪的华尔街。

shoujie

ctcld 发表于 2011-6-19 00:13
没搞错啊，是共和党的小布什和葛老头堆砌了巨债和开启了印钞机，把美元一路贬到现在的田地。
达康泡沫破 ...

小布什和现在的凹八政府，谁举债更多？俺不明白谁更错。。。

ctcld

shoujie 发表于 2011-6-19 01:55
小布什和现在的凹八政府，谁举债更多？俺不明白谁更错。。。

Economist Mike Kimel notes that the last five Democratic Presidents (Clinton, Carter, LBJ, JFK, and Truman) all reduced public debt as a share of GDP, while the last four Republican Presidents (GW Bush, GHW Bush, Reagan, and Ford) all oversaw an increase in the country’s indebtedness.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nat ... _presidential_terms

丛林法则

ctcld 发表于 2011-6-18 15:43
不同意。

即便希腊DEFAULT 了，只能说是开了个欧盟小兄弟赖账的先例，对世界经济恢复有心理冲击，但无 ...

其实也没什么.老格在的时候,纽交所还因为缺乏资金关门.让老格借钱,老格就是不借.现在美国还是好好的.

ypm968

Buffalo 发表于 2011-6-18 21:03
西蜡问题现在的症结在于西腊的民众自己. 德国和法国实际上是要西腊的民众承担所有的损失, 而他们自己犯错误 ...

终于有明白人了。 希腊己经破产了， 对于希腊人民来说，austerity不是救命的药，而是慢性毒药。Bank of Greece显示今年的财政资赤字比去年还要坏，为了达到新的austerity measure, 从而领取新一轮的bailout fund, 希腊政府不得不准备贱卖国有财产，还美其名曰私有化，打个比方今天卖了电力公司，供水公司，3个月以后bailout的钱用完了，为了领取新的bailout fund， 再把天然气公司卖了，邮局也卖了，再过3个月，把希腊的高速公路也卖了， 旅游观光岛屿也卖了，3个月再3个月。。。等希腊国有资产都卖光了，然后怎么办？Default对希腊人民来说才是最好的解决办法， 大不了退出欧元区，长痛不如短痛， 苦一点10年希腊估计也就能恢复了，总比子子孙孙一代代苦下去好，这就是这次希腊riot的原因。

决定希腊会不会default的不是德国，法国， ECB， or  IMF，而是希腊人民自己。

revolver

盼星星盼月亮盼希腊default的，都是美国的媒体。

colderdown

回复 ctcld 的帖子

我扔给你一个大砖头。回去好好翻翻资料，先看一哈阿根廷当年的default没有？再看那年代全球经济的走向，再比较阿和希经济结构的区别。

cdmawcl

回复 colderdown 的帖子

how about you give some thoughts here?

ypm968

Bailout, The Sequel: Talks on second bailout package under way according to Greek PM
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/n ... -pm/article2066739/

ctcld

colderdown 发表于 2011-6-19 11:03
回复 ctcld 的帖子

我扔给你一个大砖头。回去好好翻翻资料，先看一哈阿根廷当年的default没有？再看那年代 ...

板砖你自己保留，或许是文物

Even as the economic situation improved, the amount of the debt was still the largest defaulted debt in history (about 93 billion USD), and Argentina was in no position to pay without sacrificing essential parts of its budget.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring