06/08/2011 Market Outlook (Still today's low will be revisited at least)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: NOT SURE ABOUT REBOUND BUT AT LEAST TODAY’S LOW WILL BE REVISITED

今天由于又跌，且又是close below BB bottom，所以06/07 Market Outlook的统计，依然有效，这么强的下跌动力，第一次反弹多半会失败，因此熊熊至少还有一次sell bounce的机会。

今天又多了一个证据，extreme low TICK MA(3)，同样也是下跌动力很强的特征，因此见下图，短期可能有反弹，但是还没有跌完。

 

从chart pattern的角度看，甚至连个Bear Flag都没有，很难想象这里就bottom了，因此again，the very first rebound is a sell。

 

其他就不多说了，有很多证据都说要反弹，问题是现在无法知道什么时候。下面的图是我觉得今天最重要的底部信号，8.1.5 Normalized CPCE。其他还有两个图，大同小异，有兴趣，自己点击链接看一下吧：

• 6.1.0b Extremely High CPCE Readings Watch
• 6.1.1b Extremely High CPC Readings Watch

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
• *8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.
• 06/08 Market Outlook: The very first rebound most likely will fail.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200). QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN *Volume surge, may be bottomed for at least short-term or close. USO & Weekly DOWN XLE & Weekly DOWN   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

Fan8an

Fan8an

Jinan90

Fan8an

+

Jinan90

减仓，见高就减

Masktear

#3

newbie2011

cartier

coexist

Fan8an

今天July' 125 put 101,430. 昨天july' 121 put 98,000. 不知为什么。难倒会跌到120？

cc2265

happyface

cc2265

回复 Cobra 的帖子

Cobra, are these down days only count one  leg down? thanks.

Cobra

cc2265 发表于 2011-6-8 21:12
回复 Cobra 的帖子

Cobra, are these down days only count one  leg down? thanks.

yes, it's the very 1st down leg.

jcs

sooners

回复 Cobra 的帖子

MtlJaysFan

fara

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n748