06/07/2011 Market Outlook (At least today's low will be revisited)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: NOT SURE ABOUT REBOUND BUT AT LEAST TODAY’S LOW WILL BE REVISITED

从今天的Trading Signals的统计来看，短期随时都会有反弹，不过如果仔细看这些过去的similar cases的话，可以得出结论，反弹是sell bounce的机会。道理其实很简单，连跌5天或者连着3天close below BB bottom，是下降动力很强的表现，因此通常第一次反弹都是要失败的。

先看看自2000年起所有SPX closed below BB bottom for 3 or more consecutive days的情况，其中多重红色虚线表示超过3天close below BB bottom。无一列外稍作反弹后，都会下来测试今天的low，或者继续closes below BB bottom for a few more days。

 

再看看自2000年起所有SPX down 5 or more consecutive days的情况。这个有时短期是比较牛的，如果明天就开始大反弹的话，但是也是无一例外，此后还是要回来测试今天的low的，只不过是时间早晚的问题。

 

所以，again，结论是熊熊至少还有一次sell bounce的机会，既使今天low was in了。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200). QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN XLE & Weekly DOWN   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

dreampen

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IMeMyself

First page

dreampen

dreampen

Cooker

Ding

temujin

thanks

skipjack

usamonkey

chickencoop

great statistics. thanks,

Elephant

X中国陆军

yj1200

大牛Steve

jcs

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