06/06/2011 Market Outlook (More Selling Ahead)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: NOT SURE WHEN TO REBOUND, BUT APPARENTLY THE SELLING ISN’T OVER

两点说明：

1. 比较确定的是还没有跌完。比较不确定的是，短期应该有反弹，但不知道什么时候。因此操作上，如果有反弹的话是sell的机会。
2. SPX target 03/16 lows at 1249 or MA(200).

从下面的图看，由于RSI接连新低，表示selling还是在加速的状态，因此根据惯性定律，a forward accelerating car cannot move backward before it slows down first，应该还有的跌。不过，ChiOsc很低了，加上今天的Trading Signals给出的统计，应该短期反弹的可能性很大。顺便说，如下图，通常这样的反弹会构成Bear Flag，因此多半是sell的机会。

 

下面的图也说短期可能有反弹，但是比较高点的几率，more selling ahead。

 

下面的图是短期下跌目标，没有多少依据，更多的是经验，供参考。说明一下，过去为避免被说成屁股决定脑袋，我是尽量不谈经验或者pattern的，但现在接触很多我的intra-day comment的读者应该知道此类经验或者pattern是很可靠的，因此慢慢我会有较多这方面的东东。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
• 
  

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
• 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks. Failed!
• 05/27 Market Outlook: II Correction % too high, so should be a new high ahead then followed by a real correction. Failed!

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly DOWN *Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200). QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN *Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57. SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN XLE & Weekly DOWN   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

c3456

c3456

c3456

Beijing97

Need up tmr

c3456

老大，怎么头像改不了了？ 当总书记当腻了。

qianshui

thanks!

yaobooyao

NYSE Index 已经跌破上升趋势线支撑第三天了。

如果从volume 来说，不象是broadbase selling， 但是比较几个大盘股的指数，如果优质股都大面积跌的话，应该是controlled broadbase selling，因为没有panic 。

Billyboy

usamonkey

CoolMax

skipjack

oda

aveda

jcs

{:8_492:}

leftright

ysc

cc2265

IMeMyself

thanks

usamonkey

yaobooyao 发表于 2011-6-6 20:50
NYSE Index 已经跌破上升趋势线支撑第三天了。

如果从volume 来说，不象是broadbase selling， 但是比较 ...

you mean orderly retract, so more down ahead?