05/26/2011 Market Outlook (Could see back and forth ahead)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE BACK AND FORTH AHEAD

今天基本上按照05/23 Market Outlook提出的剧本在走，3 push down，然后再次探底，砸不下去，就只能反弹了。现在的问题是，反弹不够强，考虑到下面的两个小统计，因此我觉得多半还会有反复，所以low是否in了，还不好说。当然，明天要大高开然后大涨特涨的话，那么就不用争来吵去了，基本上新高只是个时间问题了。

 

下面是我提到的小统计：

• 70%的机会SPX会close below 05/24 close。这个在05/24 Market Outlook里讨论过了。
• 69%的机会SPX会close below today’s close。因为今天的ISEE Equities Only Index读数是282，就是说散户看牛的是看熊的2.8倍。ISEE Equities Only Index > 270, short at today’s close and cover at very first down day since 2006 (ISEE Equities Only Index所有的历史记录)，你有69%的机会可以至少捞点鸡毛。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
• 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low, so a bottom is close.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is too far above EMA(34).
• 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
• 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
• 05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.
• 05/20 Market Outlook: A little bearish next week, either close in red or drops below SPX 1318.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly UP   QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN XLE & Weekly DOWN   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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