05/24/2011 Market Outlook (Just a little bearish biased)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: JUST A LITTLE BEARISH BIASED

今天没有什么像样的证据说涨还是跌，我的判断是向下的可能性稍微大那么一点点，理由是一贯领先的QQQ, IWM and RSP都lower low了。另外从chart pattern判断，收盘前的下跌至少是15 min chart上的2 leg down，现在才是1st leg，所以至少明天早盘会软一软。

 

下面的back test稍微有一点点bearish edge，实在找不到东西吹了，所以只能把这个拿出来了，免强算是看跌的理由吧。ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index < 30, short at today’s close, cover on the very first down day, you’ll have 70% chances since March 2009 bull market，换句话说就是有70%的机会SPY lower close ahead。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
• 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low, so a bottom is close.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is too far above EMA(34).
• 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.

• 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
• 05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.
• 05/20 Market Outlook: A little bearish next week, either close in red or drops below SPX 1318.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly UP   QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP Could be a Double Top in the forming. SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN Could be a Symmetrical Triangle on $WTIC, more likely to continue down. XLE & Weekly DOWN   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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面瓜

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SmartyJones

小财虫

IMeMyself

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oldfox

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chickencoop

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can2000

Dow         -42.00 now

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