05/23/2011 Market Outlook (Follow-Through Wanted)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:31 PM

SHORT-TERM: CRITICAL TIME, BULLS ARE NOT OVER YET

三点说明：

还没有跌完，但如果不能decisively breakdown today’s low的话，小心牛牛大反攻，换句话说，就是牛牛还没有完。
明天有64%的机会收绿。这个数值接近random，只是有一点点点点bullish edge。
操作上，我会优先考虑sell bounce。

为什么说牛牛还没有完？见下图，如果跌不下去的话，小心3 push down后的2 leg up。一般规律，一旦反弹，幅度会大于05/17到05/19的反弹。当然，目前熊熊还不用担心，因为看着还没有跌完的样子，关键的问题是跌多少？

为什么说明天有64%的机率收绿？见下图。SPY open and close out of its BB bottom since 2003，明天和一周后bullish。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(5) too low, so a bottom is close.

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is too far above EMA(34).
4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

~~04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.~~
~~05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.~~
05/20 Market Outlook: A little bearish next week, either close in red ~~or drops below SPX 1318~~.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	COMMENT
SPY & Weekly	UP
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP	*Could be a Double Top in the forming.
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	DOWN	Volume surge after constantly trending down, may pullback.
USO & Weekly	DOWN	*Could be a Symmetrical Triangle on $WTIC, more likely to continue down.
XLE & Weekly	DOWN
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

大牛Steve · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:35 PM

viewer · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:36 PM

can2000 · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:38 PM

wave · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:43 PM

wbay · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:44 PM

wnd4 · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:47 PM

thanks

MFTHT · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:49 PM

hifive · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:51 PM

jcw · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:51 PM

ysc · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:55 PM

jpm · 发表于 2011-5-23 05:58 PM

thanks

two big gap down in a row; likely a small gap tomorrow within range ?

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-5-23 06:00 PM

Ding!

我是谁 · 发表于 2011-5-23 06:09 PM

thx

萧秋水 · 发表于 2011-5-23 06:12 PM

PacificLegend · 发表于 2011-5-23 06:14 PM

aimei · 发表于 2011-5-23 06:18 PM

leftright · 发表于 2011-5-23 06:21 PM

frogguru · 发表于 2011-5-23 06:21 PM

CoolMax · 发表于 2011-5-23 06:22 PM

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[技术分析] 05/23/2011 Market Outlook (Follow-Through Wanted)

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