我正式收回我要在27。2买armh的话

pigking

nnd熊，我一个前辈空了它，问题的关键是10年当中，我和他对赌过无数场，全有记录，而我赢他的比例只有31%

我怕了。

pigking

我现在画个圈圈诅咒他，让他被挤空的挤爆了

nnd熊，这个是我最看好的一支了。被他给吓唬跑了。

丛林法则

pigking 发表于 2011-5-5 02:16
我现在画个圈圈诅咒他，让他被挤空的挤爆了

nnd熊，这个是我最看好的一支了。被他给吓唬跑了。

源济

like2swing

I definitely would not long armh after intel 3-d chip news. But I won't short it either because it's a potential take over target. Maybe I would buy a little bit put.

cdmawcl

intel "3-D chip" is the stuff TSMC, Global Foundry need to worry about. it is not related to ARM's chip architecture vs X86 architecture. If TSMC can catch up on this process, well, as usual, intel's process is always 1.5 year ahead of everybody, but this has been in this way for long time..

fortune1212

http://www.macrumors.com/2011/05/06/apple-to-move-from-intel

真的假的，大家说说

cdmawcl

回复 pigking 的帖子

your wish may be true today.

pigking

回复 cdmawcl 的帖子

haha, I am happy now.

ellesmere

+2.00 (7.27%)

dividend_growth

fortune1212 发表于 2011-5-6 02:22
http://www.macrumors.com/2011/05/06/apple-to-move-from-intel

真的假的，大家说说

97%是假的。

cdmawcl

I do not believe this rumor is true either, at least not in any meaningful way, but on the other hand, i do not believe Intel's annoucement would have any meaningful threat to ARM and ARM ecosystem in 1--2 years timeframe.

ypm968

ARM chips to own 13% of PC market by 2015: IDC
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Share  |  Recommend PrintEmail Alert By Benjamin Pimentel, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Suddenly, ARM Holdings is on the radar screen of the personal computer world, the market long dominated by Intel Corp.

Processors based on the ARM Holdings ARMH +0.10%   architecture are expected to make up more than 13% of the PC chip market by 2015, IDC said Thursday. It was the first time IDC made a forecast on PC chips based on processor design.

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ARM-based chips, made by such companies as Nvidia NVDA +0.36%   and Texas Instruments TXN +0.60%   , are known to be more power-efficient. As a result, ARM has outpaced Intel in the markets for smart phones and tablets, in which long battery life plays a critical role.

The IDC projection is based mainly on chips designed specifically for PCs, and does not include tablets, said analyst Shane Rau.

Rau said the projection was based mainly on recent the announcement that the next version of Microsoft Corp. MSFT -0.08%  Windows operating system will support ARM’s technology. Recently, ARM and Nvidia Corp. announced a plan to develop chips for desktops and servers in a clear challenge to Intel.

The IDC projection comes a day after Intel announced what it called a major technology breakthrough, a three-dimensional transistor that is said would allow chips to operate using less power while maintaining high performance.

Some analysts agreed the technology and Intel’s shift to a 22-nanometer manufacturing technology could boost the company’s competitiveness against ARM.

But Bernstein Research analyst Stacy Rasgon also said in a note, “We do not believe the new 22-nanometer technology will accelerate Intel’s offerings in the mid-term vis-à-vis ARM in the ultra-mobile space.”

“While 22-nanometer may finally make Intel competitive vs. ARM on the power front, we would continue to expect 22-nanometer Atom-based solutions likely in the second half of next year,” Rasgon wrote. “In the meantime ARM providers continue to march up their own performance slopes.”

IDC also announced that worldwide PC chip shipments rose 7.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2011, IDC said Thursday. Intel remained the No. 1 vendor with 81% total market share, while AMD was No. 2 with 19%.

ypm968

Intel Sags, ARM Jumps On Rumor Apple May Switch (Update)
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By Tiernan Ray

Joanne Feeney with Longbow Research, who follows Intel (INTC), today reflects on a story posted on SemiAccurate by Charlie Demerjian yesterday suggesting Apple (AAPL) may switch its laptop computers from Intel’s processors to its own chips based on designs of ARM Holdings (ARMH).

The story, “Apple Dumps Intel From Laptop Line,” is anything but tentative. Demerjian opines that Apple is waiting till the next version of ARM’s chips have full 64-bit memory addressing before making a switch. He points to remarks by another AMR licensee, Nvidia (NVDA), suggesting that that milestone will be in Q4 of next year or maybe Q1 of 2013. “It won’t be really soon, but we are told it is a done deal,” writes Demerjian.

Feeney observes that Demerjian is well-respected in tech circles and has been right in past observations, and so, “We view this as a reasonable possibility for Apple, but do not expect the Windows-based PC makers to follow suit.”

Apple, of course, has used its home-brewed A4 and A5 chips based on ARM modified CPU architecture to power its iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad. The next version of Apple’s computer operating system, “Lion,” has some features that bring it closer to the look and feel of the iOS operating system on the iPhone, so it’s clear that Apple is trying to meld some aspects of its computers with its non-laptop, non-desktop machines.

But there’s enough uncertainty, in Feeney’s view, about a possible switch that it’s “not to be an immediate concern” for Intel’s stock.

Intel shares today are down 26 cents, or 1%, at $23.35. Apple shares are up $2.24, or 0.7%, at $348.99. And ARM shares are up $1.70, or 6%, at $29.21.

pigking

队长的帖子我是看了几遍了，我想问题的关键是
1）intc到底能抢armh多少份额的市场，高端的苹果恐怕要叛变，投降armh?怀疑。有一个数据说，3D可以在利用率上高于armh 20%. 体积大概小40-60%.可能更小。其他坛子有人说，现在intc降armh涨实际是掩护庄家出货。 我不信，庄家如果现在才知道，就该改名叫傻家。
2）armh到底能抢pc多少市场，13%？也怀疑，低端可是还有一个amd呢。低端恐怕是amd最后的阵地了。现在amd在pc市场好像只有19%。这个数字不确定。amrh上来抢得恐怕是amd的市场份额，而不是intc的。
3）在server这样的intc的禁脔之中，armh是否能成功抢到份额？
4）到底tablet 和 smartphone 能增长多少？

其实归根结底一句话，现在的市场展望是否能支撑armh这么高的pe.

另外，又一个现象不知道大家发现没有，3d新闻出来3天了，明显矛头直指armh，但是到今天armh没出来说一句话，为什么？你千万别告诉我因为armh刚知道，没准备好。p话，敌中有我，我中有敌，armh不会真刚知道的。这东西保不了密，更何况intc是2002年就开始研发了。

我觉得唯一的解释就是，这个3d技术的应用可能存在着一个巨大的缺陷，也许是价格也许是最后整体能耗并没有想象中省那么多，或者别的什么。。。

哪位高手展展？我真的是芯片白痴。。。

ypm968

pigking 发表于 2011-5-6 21:50
队长的帖子我是看了几遍了，我想问题的关键是
1）intc到底能抢armh多少份额的市场，高端的苹果恐怕要叛变， ...

呵呵！俺也是个芯片白痴，专业一点的咱就不懂了。 我一直trade ARMH这支股票，所以比较留意关于这家公司的新闻。咱也谈谈俺的看法。

先说说intc 3D tri-gate chip这个新闻， CNBC上一出现这条新闻，我就留意armh股价， 没有跌反而是跟intc一起涨。

目前ARMH在低耗能CPU这方面遥遥领先Intel Atom chip, 几乎所有的smartphone和tablet都是用的ARMH的design，包括NVDA的最新的tergra 2. Intel Atom chip主要用于netbook, 低端的笔记本电脑， 即使新的Atom 3D tri-gate chip出来也只是拉小和ARMH chip之间的距离，想要打入smartphone和tablet市场，下一代22nm chip才有可能和ARMH chip竞争，至少要等到明年下半年。

ARMH也不会等着INTC追上来，ARM Cortex-A9是dual-core and quad-core的设计，最快速度可以达到2Ghz，ipad 2 A5，NVDA Tergra 2, 新的QCOM snapdragon（28nm）用的都是dual-core，明年初用ARM Cortex-A9设计的quad-core CPU就会出来，而INTC Atom cpu只有dual-core没有quad-core设计.

INTC和AMD的恶梦

ARMH的下一代CPU ARM Cortex-A15会在2013年出来, 64bit的, 也是dual core 和 quad core设计，最高速度可以达到2.5Ghz。微软已经公布了下一代Windows支持ARM CPU， 这才是INTC和AMD恶梦的开始， 两家的垄断将会被打破， 到时候QCOM， TI, NVDA, Samsung, LG, 都可以生产PC CPU，未来可能还会有更多公司购买ARMH的license加入这个行列。 那时侯受影响最大的就是中低端desktop computer和notebook computer 市场， Price war  肯定会导致INTC和AMD的market share缩水， 现在的profit margin不可能再维持下去。 我不觉得IDC 13%的forecast有什么问题。

关于smartphone和tablet, 我认为smartphone会取代普通手机， tablet会取代netbook和低端notebook. 在amazon上便宜的android手机只要一百多块，中国杂牌的tablet只要一百块, 价格还在往下走，中国那些原来做山寨版手机的都开始改做android手机和tablet。 高端的tablet像ipad随着CPU速度的增快，会有更多的pc applications移植到iOS上，如果dual-core速度能达到1.5GHz以上就可以取代netbook, Quad-core出来就可以取代中低端notebook. QCOM的1.5GHz dual-core snapdragon Q3会出来， 明年初QCOM和NVDA的quad-core就会出来。 明年的出来的Ipad 3很可能会用quad-core CPU。


关于valuation, tech stock没有valuation, 只有growth和no growth. MSFT vs IBM, AMD vs INTC, AAPL vs MSFT, JNPR vs CSCO, GOOG vs YHOO, 高科技公司在成长阶段PE都是高得吓人的。Iphone 2007年六月刚出来的时候， ARMH PE就是90多， 股价八块多（分股后）， 那时候INTC  23块多， 现在ARMH 29块， INTC还是23块。

关于AAPL会改用ARMH的chip，我觉得在notebook这方面很可能，性能差不多的情况下，让ARMH设计买个license，找个代工生产，成本会比直接从INTC买低得多。

pigking

回复 ypm968 的帖子

谢谢分享你的想法，我要重新估计armh的价值。如果armh冲击pc市场的话，这个股票还有得翻番呢。

老大在选股方面很厉害，我是直到armh上了20才开始认真对待它，但是一直踩不准点，经常被震出来，老大技术分析一下，什么价为介入更合适点？

ypm968

其实ARMH很容易trade, 每次拉回到20周均线，你就buy dip, 跌破了就跑路。 周三和周四都有买点，现在不要买了， 高不高，低不低的，不如等站上$32创出新高以后再买。