04/18/2011 大盘回顾 （Surprisingly a Major Distribution Day）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY Intermediate 4 of 5 are *SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 04/11-4/20 04/17 : 04/20 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/11, 04/20

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. 04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April. 0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: A few TradingMarkets long setups trigged on 04/12. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: 03/16 lows will be revisited. My Thoughts There’re some chances that an intermediate-term top was in.

SPY SYSTEM ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. Non-Stop 04/15 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only. CI Buy & Hold *04/18 S N/A *Long position closed and short position opened on 04/18. CI Swing *04/18 S 2*ATR(10) *Short position initiated on 04/18. Short-term *DOWN N/A I hold partial short position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: 67% CHANCES A GREEN DAY TOMORROW; NOT SURE IF THE LOW WAS IN, POSSIBLY THOUGH

三点说明：

1. 明天有67%的机会收绿。
2. 无法排除the low was in的可能。
3. 操作上，我会sell the very first bounce。Cobra Impulse System今天正式做熊了，这是处女航，就祝Cobra同志好运吧。关于这个信号的图，我在今天的After Bell Quick Summary里贴了。以后我会把所有的交易信号都放在After Bell Quick Summary里，会把After Bell Quick Summary更名为Trading Report，专讲操作。晚上的报告就纯粹是分析，不讲操作了，也将更名为Market Outlook。

为什么说明天有67%的机会收绿？非常surprise，没有注意到今天最后15分钟sell volume突然增加，最后居然整成了Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume  > 9)，而通常Major Distribution Day的第二天是有67%的机会收绿的。至于为什么最后15分钟整成MDD，确实非常可疑，但我过去没有注意过类似的情况，所以就不乱怀疑了哈。

 

为什么无法排除the low was in的可能？

• RSP今天还是没有lower low，说明今天的下跌是由于权重股引起的，不是broad based下跌，因此下跌的诚意，可疑。此外，RSI的positive divergence看着也很bullish。

 

• QQQ hollow red bar，看起来此后都很bullish。顺便看一下AAPL的图就明白了，大家都抢着在AAPL的support处买入，因为04/20就是AAPL ER了，而是个地球人都知道，AAPL的ER是不会差的，也因此，我怀疑AAPL还有的涨，这样，大盘可能会反弹到20号。

 

• 最后还想提醒一下，seasonality，本周的剩下的三天是很牛的，see 04/15 Market Recap。下面图截图来自Bespoke。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: MIXED

See 04/15 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	DOWN	*Hollow red bar, so rebound?
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	*04/18 L
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

当时惘然

thanks

tonyshen

tonyshen

当时惘然

谢谢

tonyshen

49north

sofa

cartier

大牛Steve

COS

brcm

04/20 AAPL ER是盘前，盘后？。。怎么查不到？。。。。。

maldini

我觉得是蛇大重仓空头
现在拼命给自己找牛的理由？

usamonkey

belmonthill

Confused..  the last 15 min candle is white, why is it  the selling volume?

Thanks a lot..

当时惘然

先预祝班长做熊的处女航，一帆风顺。
问题是为啥报告了写不少看牛的理由，还做熊处女泥？
此次航行的第一站是124.73-吗？

另外的一个不太吉利的问题是，如果回航（止损）点是131.70+吗？

谢谢。

frogguru

balto

靠，我怎么看苹果越看越像头肩顶呢，哈哈。。。

tang1688

萧秋水

ahdou