04/12/2011 大盘回顾 （No Confidence in the Coming Rebound）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 04/11-04/15 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/11

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. 04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April. *0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: A few TradingMarkets long setups trigged on 04/12. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: 03/16 lows will be revisited. 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Top confirmed? 0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Top? My Thoughts *There’re some chances that an intermediate-term top was in.

SPY SYSTEM ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. Non-Stop 03/31 L N/A CI Buy & Hold 12/03 L N/A CI Swing *Long if SPY breakout 04/12 high tomorrow. The stop loss is 1.7*ATR(10). Short-term DOWN N/A I hold both long (trapped) and short overnight.

SHORT-TERM: DOUBT ABOUT THE COMING REBOUND ESPECIALLY ON HOW FAR IT COULD GO

三点说明：

1. 很多long setup触发了或者明天很可能触发，不过，我对这些setup暂时没有多少信心。
2. 明天既使开始反弹，我也怀疑这个反弹能走多远。
3. 操作上我优先考虑的是sell bounce，除非明天大涨特涨。

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提了很多bullish的setup，后面也会提到Cobra Impulse System (trial version)明天也有个可能的long setup，因此也许我不该争辩明天是否开始反弹的问题。不过，SPY 60 min图最后整的两个棒棒实在看着不怎么牛牛友好，所以不能排除明天早盘会去测试一下今天的low的可能性。

 

为什么我觉得这个反弹，如果有的话，可能走不远？

VIX:VXV还是很低，很难想象，下面要是大涨特涨的话，这东东要低到啥程度？

 

Institutional Buying and Selling Action from StockTiming。一般来说，大盘涨不是因为accumulation而是因为distribution少了，问题是，目前institutions distribution还处于一个非常低的水平，同样我很难想象，下面要是大涨特涨的话，这东东还能低到啥程度？

 

最后说明一下明天Cobra Impulse System可能的long setup，必须high过今天的high才有效，否则如图所示，有很高几率会被trap。一般常用的操作方法是在今天的high，比如SPY 131.98上放一个buy stop，比如132.00，这样明天突破131.98后就会自动买入。明天要是高开在131.98上怎么办呢？通常我会等15 min Open Range breakout后买入，做法也是同样放置一个buy stop在15 min OR high的上方。声明一下哈，Cobra Impulse System当笑话看看就好啦，千万别当真了。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details. Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before expiration, Dow up 14 of last 21, down 4 of last 6.
2. April expiration day, Dow up 11 of last 14.
3. Income tax deadline, generally bullish, Dow down only 5 times since 1981.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	UP
TLT & Weekly	DOWN
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	04/05 L
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

daxiong

sofa!!!

jcw

jy1029

jy1029

first page

oda

我是谁

1st page
thx  laoda ！！！

Elephant

正式熊啦

sooners

回复 Cobra 的帖子

littlevivi

firstpage！

PacificLegend

bucks

yanjun

fara

first, first, first page!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

umqasr

天天向上

littlevivi

vicvic

littlevivi

这么快就又牛了，股市真是变幻莫测

Billyboy

Thanks.