04/06/2011 大盘回顾 （Could see some weakness ahead）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 04/11-04/15 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/11

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. 04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 03/31 L N/A Beware the winning rate is below 50%, it’s the gain/loss ratio that matters. ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10) Stopped out of short position on 03/30 with loss. Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this one soon. Short-term UP *03/30 Low I hold partial long position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD

两点说明：

1. 不清楚是否还有一冲去新高，但比较确定稍微大一点点的pullback应该是逃不掉了。
2. 操作上在没有看到熊熊发力之前，还是应该buy dip。

关于pullback的理由还不算很充分，这也是为什么我不清楚是否还有一冲去新高的原因。

下面这个图其实很熊，可能大家没有意识到。除了After Bell Quick Summary里提到的Ending Diagonal Triangle以外，RSI negative divergence和3 push up pattern都是比较熊的。

 

T2122, NYSE 4 week new high/low ratio，这个是我看overbought/oversold的终极武器。虽然相较于历史，目前还不是很extreme，不过考虑到Russell 2000已经是历史新高了，不可避免的创新高的股票会越来越少，因此不能指望T2122还能历史性的extreme，这样，目前的读数就可能已经是最高了。

 

大家看看OEX option trader在大量买进put的时候，散户都在干啥？ISEE Equities Only Index 大于300，应该是历史前五名以内的数据。

 

再下面的两个图应该是关于中期的，了解一下吧。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP	Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	UP
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	04/05 L
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

trueself

trueself

trueself

usamonkey

福多多

oldfox

jcw

hi-liter

前排就座。

Billyboy

RE

slcgh

DayDayUp

windy

当时惘然

thank you

hillcrest

X中国陆军

jennifer

But option calls are more than puts, right?

CoolMax

tonyshen

开小差

thx, ding