04/04/2011 大盘回顾（New High Ahead?）

Cobra · 发表于 2011-4-4 05:54 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate	4 of 5 are BUY	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term		6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY	MOON:SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
04/11-04/15	04/03 : 04/05	04/04-04/13	Next pivot date: 04/11

BULLISH	09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. 04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April.
BEARISH	4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead. ~~03/25 Market Recap~~: ~~VIX~~ ~~18% below~~ MA~~(10) is bearish in 5 days.~~
My Thoughts	The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	03/31 L	N/A	Beware the winning rate for a trend following system is usually below 50%.
ST Model	~~03/22 S~~	~~1.9*ATR(10)~~	Stopped out of short position on 03/30 with loss. Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this one soon.
Short-term	UP	03/29 Low	I hold partial long position over the weekend.

SHORT-TERM: ONE MORE PUSH UP AHEAD, PERHAPS TO A NEW HIGH

三点说明：

还有一攻，可能会new high。
CPCI surge，注意短期风险。
操作上还是应该buy dip。

SPY可能整了一个Ascending Triangle，因此应该还有最后一攻。由于1.2.0 INDU Leads Market，INDU已经new high了，因此这最后一攻多半会出new high。The evil plan依旧是如果最后一攻很弱的话，那么此后多半会有2 legged pullback。

今天比较特别的地方是CPCI surge，可能大户买了很多put，一般理论认为这是bullish的特征，不过，从图上，我只看到了短期熊。这个，暂时算作我预期的2 legged pullback的证据吧。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET AREA 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP	Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	UP
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP	Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
GDX & Weekly	03/30 S
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

soulvirus · 发表于 2011-4-4 05:56 PM

新低手 · 发表于 2011-4-4 05:56 PM

本帖最后由新低手于 2011-4-4 18:56 编辑

soulvirus · 发表于 2011-4-4 05:56 PM

CoolMax · 发表于 2011-4-4 05:57 PM

mayoutu · 发表于 2011-4-4 05:59 PM

沙发？

whzdf · 发表于 2011-4-4 05:59 PM

learner2009 · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:00 PM

farmer01 · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:01 PM

surya · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:04 PM

lwmm · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:05 PM

Bencat · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:05 PM

trueself · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:06 PM

all missed

oda · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:07 PM

trueself · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:08 PM

usamonkey · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:08 PM

hi-liter · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:08 PM

本帖最后由 hi-liter 于 2011-4-4 19:09 编辑

先顶再看。

coexist · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:10 PM

catbear · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:15 PM

lehldk · 发表于 2011-4-4 06:15 PM

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[技术分析] 04/04/2011 大盘回顾（New High Ahead?）

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[技术分析] 04/04/2011 大盘回顾 （New High Ahead?）

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[技术分析] 04/04/2011 大盘回顾（New High Ahead?）