02/23/2011 大盘回顾 （Pullback could last for 4 weeks on average）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are *SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode. Short-term 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 02/20 02/18 : 02/19 02/19 Next pivot date: 02/20

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. 6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Watch for potential buy setup. *0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: A few short-term long signal triggered. BEARISH 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200). 02/14 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb Money Confidence spread is too large.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A *02/23: Close long and sell short, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw. ST Model 02/17 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 02/22 with loss. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is DOWN. I hold partial short position overnight.

My Thoughts *The pullback since 02/22 will last for awhile but the 02/18 high will be visited again.

 

SHORT-TERM: NOT SURE IF THE FIRST DOWN LEG IS OVER, BUT CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAT THERE’LL BE A 2ND LEG DOWN THEREAFTER

 

短期I expect at least 2 leg down，这一点由于今天的follow-through，我目前已经没有多少疑问了。现在不清楚的是，是否the 1st leg down今天已经结束了？有这个可能性，但是由于SPY 60 min chart最后一根棒看着比较bearish，外加RSI没有positive divergence，所以50 to 50的机会，明天可能还会测试今天的low，see chart below。

 

 

今天有两个说道：

 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，primary sell信号了，所以这几天follow Non-Stop的应该找机会close long，aggressive点的可以反手short，见table above。这一轮Non-Stop model表现不错，从9月7号一直long到现在。另一个要注意的地方是，CPCE trend line今天confirm breakout了，因此是说market top了。

 

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，根据TradingMarkets，今天有无数的short-term long signal，自己看图吧。这些setup的胜率都是80%+，不过我不知道TradingMarkets是怎么测试的，因为他们号称不用stop loss，所以我不知道失败的case要怎么处理。Info only吧。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 WILL LAST FOR 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE BUT THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER

 

我最近一直blah blah的2.5%+ pullback，今天算是fulfill了，迟到了几天，用了65 trading day。下面的表格列出了过去所有的up 40+ trading days without 2.5%+ pullback的case，可以很清楚地看到：

1. Pullback一旦开始，平均跌5.5%，不过有12 out of 16 (75%)的机会，pullback < 5%。
2. Pullback平均持续25 calendar day，只有3 out of 16 (19%)的机会，02/18是the high for long long time。
3. Pullback以后，平均45 calendar day内又会回到02/18 high，其中11 out of 16 (69%)的机会，rebound to new high会在3周内完成。

总结一下，就是说机会很大，pullback会持续几周，但是02/18 high will most likely be revisited soon。

 

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK

 

See 02/18 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S	*Testing MA(50).
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM		*Testing MA(50).
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP	No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200), %B too high.
TLT		Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		Clear breakout on WTIC chart.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/09 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L	*Testing MA(50).
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR		*Testing MA(20).
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S	*Testing MA(50).
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

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