02/15/2011 大盘回顾 （Just a Pullback?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 02/10-/13,02/20 02/18 : 02/19 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 02/20

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200). 02/14 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb Money Confidence spread is too large.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 02/11 L breakeven *Stopped out long position on 02/15 flat. I think I need to update the model to avoid this kind of cases happening again and again. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold long position overnight, slightly underwater.

My Thoughts I’m almost convinced that this could be a primary 3 of 3 up to much much higher.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND TOMORROW

 

今天要说的，在After Bell Quick Summary里已经都说了，由于price overlap，所以看起来不像是big correction的开始。而明天根据Presidents day的seasonality，看起来收绿的可能性很大，plus已经是连续5天gap down了，熊熊愣是没有把牛牛砸下去，所以下面牛牛反攻的几率很大。这样，我猜，非常可能yesterday high will be retested tomorrow at least。

 

 

On a little bit longer than short-term，我暂时维持本周是key week的看法。下面的图，according to Schaeffer是说hedge fund买了很多put，因此是在accumulation mode，所以牛，但是personally，我觉得红线的上升已经到了一个不可持续的level，因此，尽管目前是bullish，但很大可能我们这一轮rally已经在final stage了。当然，我不sure是否就是本周，trading wise，对我并不重要，什么时候short-term model开始高高兴兴的hold short overnight了（注意，不是被过夜哈），什么时候就是pullback的开始了，因为我simply follow the market。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW THIS WEEK

 

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

 

See 02/11 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought. Too far above MA(200).
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	*UP?	*No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L	TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE		Watch for possible 1-2-3 trend change to down from up.
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	DOWN
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO		*ChiOsc is way too low.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/09 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

当时惘然

sf

当时惘然

thank you

当时惘然

OE week is tricky.

开小差

thx,ding

ninemao

AAPL 今天很顽强地要去新高。

ht2010

Thanks! 1st page

jcw

1234

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

xiaochong

班长 Schaeffer的图能给个链接吗？

jWishbone

Thanks.

trender

hi-liter

Thank, Lao She.

Cobra

班长 Schaeffer的图能给个链接吗？
xiaochong 发表于 2011-2-15 20:37

    我也是要来的。

jinr

nooutlier

thanks

xuetu

萧秋水

happyface

thanks