关于星说的通胀型大牛市的一点看法

colderdown

First thing first, this is just for discussion's sake. Please don't use it to check market.

1，Inflation has demand pull inflation and cost push inflation. What Xing said was cost push inflation, which arise from the supply side of the economy. Rising per-unit production costs drive up general prices. This squeezes profits, and businesses will produce less but charge more. Output and employment generally decline. Cost-push inflation usually follows a supply shock (an abrupt increase in resource prices). In the 1970's, America experienced this type of inflation following OPEC's decision to drastically raise oil prices.

2. What did happened in US around 1960 to 1970s, especailly wages. Wage inflation increases sharply in the mid- to late-1960s, from around 3 percent per year on average to some seven percent per year. Thereafter it drifts upward, reaching a peak of some nine percent per year by the beginning of the 1980s. The large cycles in price inflation are absent from movements in nominal wages: "special factors" like oil shocks, food price shocks, shortages, and so forth are hard to detect in the pattern of nominal wage movements. (chart 1) Anway, IMHO, it is very hard to expect huge current wage increase like 1970s. Among G7, only Germany see some siganificant wage raise, but German's economic is another topic. Let's say we do have wage increase and we do have cost push inflation, then what?

3.By the beginning of 1969, the U.S. had already finished its experiment: was it possible to have unemployment rates of four percent or below without accelerating inflation? The answer was reasonably clear: no. Then, how come we had low unemployment rate and low inflation since 1998 to 2007. Well, we had .com bubble which induced huge amounts investments to keep unemployment rate low, then we had loose credit, which helped strong demand, of course, cheap Chinese labor kept the inflation low. Now, with the commodities price moving up due to EVERTBODY's printing machine, what will happen? Now, let's take look at a classic cost push inflation, US in 70s' (chart 2) You can check inflation rate when market topped or bottomed from this site:
http://www.usinflationcalculator ... al-inflation-rates/

So, it is very clear to me that cost push inflation did not really push the market to big bull market. The super bull market run started in 1982 (bottom) when inflation rate is 6.2 and reach its 1st peak in 1983, while inflation rate was 3.6. After that, we have not seen inflation rate above 5 except 1990, which is a pig's yr at the best. How did this happen? Well, since 1982, US entered debt economy, the inflation was transfered from cosu push to demand pull. In general, I believe, cost push inflation won't do any good to stock market either this time, even any inflation can indeed happen. So, what does we need to long and sleep well at night, here is one idea for long term holding (chart 3). Well, I won't list what is one, but it is not hard for anyone to figure out. You want to make money, then, you need to work.

BTW, I belong to 20% class. so, this stuff may be useless for you.

colderdown

回复 1# colderdown

Chart 1

colderdown

回复 2# colderdown

Chart 2.

colderdown

回复 3# colderdown

Chart 3

trueself

sofa?

trueself

不是很懂

就纯仰慕好了

yuliang

thanks for your analysis. 看了图二，更明白星星说的赚了都是亏了的道理了。
figure3 猜不出来是啥. 冷唇兄，给点提示

dividend_growth

通胀时好赚钱，只要钻进原材料就行了。

大通胀时，做空死路一条。

Barton Biggs在他的War, Wealth, and Wisdom里贴了不少二战时的欧洲股市图，尽管实际上输得裤子都没了，但绝对数目却涨了很多。

还有看看巴西股市1990-1995年的走向，嘿嘿！

dividend_growth

别看道指1977-1982年时萎靡不振，很多Naz股这中间都涨疯了；

老巴的BRK在这期间翻了X倍；

老巴买的WPO更是疯狂！

trueself

别看道指1977-1982年时萎靡不振，很多Naz股这中间都涨疯了；

老巴的BRK在这期间翻了X倍；

老巴买的WP ...
dividend_growth 发表于 2011-2-10 19:33

    你就直说吧，你是熊皮还是牛心？

ddd

A few notes:

- U.S. GDP is U.S.$ denominated, the effect needs to be considered

- the Government's Consumer Price Index, where food, energy, and housing are excluded, is not a true measure of "real inflation" felt by ordinary people

- "price inflation" can be "stored" in an asset's bubble for a period of time, and drive another asset's bubble, and later be released into the consumer staples and later discretionary. It's arguable that the dot com bubble was one driving force for the housing bubble after 2000, and the housing bubble at its peak was one driving force for the stock market run from 2005 to 2007. It's "energy" may have not released fully into the consumer staples just yet, but perhaps has caused an accelerated price inflation in the developing world such as in China.

- what is the cause of the hyperinflation of Germany in the 1920s? Some argues it was caused by the unbearable financial burden due to the resolution of the war. Well, the U.S. treasury debt is approaching 100% of its GDP, and all obligations considered the total debt is about $50-60T. It's imaginable that at some point, if the debt continues to mount, this structure will be highly unstable, and can be tumbled by a tightening of money supply, i.e. a rise in short-term interest rates. What would be the resolution and the result in such a case? The interest due on the treasury debt (about $14T) is covered from the federal tax income of $2.1 - 2.5T, at 2 - 3% of interest rate is one situation, and at 6 - 8%, where nearly half of the tax income is required, can be entirely different.

- what is the cause of hyperinflation of China in the late 1940's under 国民党, a demand pull or supply push, or out of the contest of the supply and demand but simply a commodity price relable to reflect the true value of money？

dingdingdang

yuliang

1987年4月1日三十年期债券息率7.6厘，到同年8月已升到9.2厘，但股市继续上升，至87年10月出现股灾。1999年4月三十年期债券息率5.4厘，同年12月已升至6.55厘，股市照样上升，到2000年3月科网股泡沫爆破。2010年9月三十年期债息3.5厘，最近已升至4.5厘，美国股市照样上升，最后结果又如何？

一马平川

colderdown

回复 10# trueself

some 原材料

trueself

回复  trueself

some 原材料
colderdown 发表于 2011-2-10 20:40

    got you ,thanks!

silicon_beaver

Need to sit down to slowly read it.  Useful knowledge.

xmanhua

个人观点，国内股市已经是牛市了，只不过给故意的天量融资压着，请看中证流通指数。什么时候热钱大量回流，什么时候党就不会再按着了。:lol

HTER

colderdown

这个题目最关键的是chart 1，其余的只是假设有星说的成本型通胀。如果收入，就业不增加，信贷不旺，而原材料继续上涨的话，那就是国军的金元卷问题了。到目前为止，股市的上涨是健康的，这是由于美企业竞争力，生产能力，和低人工费用的结果，而不是由于通胀，或通胀预期为主要动力的。下一步美企的压力是市场了。