01/27/2011 大盘回顾 （CPCI is way too high）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/19,01/26 01/19 : 01/20 Next pivot date: 01/19

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU new high, so SPX will follow? BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 26 unfilled gaps, the max is 26. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually? 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? Failed! 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? 6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down). Failed! 8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January. 01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good. 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign. Failed! 01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped? 01/21 Market Recap: INDU up 8 weeks in a row, could mean a red next week. *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI is way too high, could mean a top of some kind.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Long triggered on 01/14, flatted out on 01/19, no chance to follow though. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold no position overnight.

My Thoughts Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started.

 

SHORT-TERM: EXTREMELY HIGH CPCI READINGS COULD MEAN SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD

 

今天的new high还是不够decisive，因此熊熊还有希望，特别是根据6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, the last 2 trading days of each month since August 2009 were bearish，所以再给熊熊几天时间吧。顺便说，Table above的bearish signs，我划掉了一些，除了明显failed以外，还有的既使将来对了，也很难判断是否是signs work了，所以不具备predictive power，因此也干脆取消了，嗯，consider this is my way of capitulation? 呵呵。

 

 

两点说明：

 

0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，CPCI too high，这往往意味着at least a short-term top。跟很多其它信号一样，最近这东东也work的不好，但毕竟还work，所以看吧。

 

 

今天AMZN ER，AH跌得很凶，这个其实对牛牛是好消息，假设明天AMZN收红的话。还记得，01/18 Market Recap里提到IBM one day return on earnings predicts the SPX  over the next 5 weeks 80%+ of the time吗？这个，AMZN正好反过来，AMZN跌，意味着很大机会SPX涨over the next 5 weeks，所以注意明天AMZN的涨跌吧。下面的统计，来自Bespoke (up to July 2010)。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/18 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN

 

Since even the short-term I have no answer for whether the pullback is over, so whether the intermediate-term was topped, we’ll have to wait and see.

 

SEASONALITY: THE LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF EACH MONTH SINCE AUGUST 2009 WERE BEARISH

 

See 01/21 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	*01/27 L
NDX Weekly	UP	BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	DOWN	No lower low to confirm yet, but the sell off is strong, so downgrade the trend to down from up.
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly	?
FXE		3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): 1-2-3 trend change, UUP could be in downtrend.
FXE Weekly	UP	No higher low to confirm yet but the rebound is strong, so I upgrade the trend to up from down.
GLD
GLD Weekly	*DOWN
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	*DOWN
XLE	01/25 S
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	01/19 S
XLB Weekly	DOWN	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

oda

sf

萧秋水

沙发！！

oldfox

oda

hoho

happyface

shafa?

萧秋水

晕，我说怎么坐下去怪硬的，原来是个包了沙发布的板凳！

ahdou

first page

jWishbone

Thanks.

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

Diver

...
Cobra 发表于 2011-1-27 20:38

胡同儿串子

jcs

sandera

开小差

thx ding

ut1984

源济

chujingluyou

Thanks!

jinr

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