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| BULLISH |
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU new high, so SPX will follow? |
| BEARISH |
1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 25 unfilled gaps, the max is 25.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down).
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January.
01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good.
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign.
01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped?
01/21 Market Recap: INDU up 8 weeks in a row, could mean a red next week. | |
| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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| ST Model |
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Long triggered on 01/14, flatted out on 01/19, no chance to follow though. |
| Short-term |
N/A |
N/A |
Trend is UP, not confirmed though. I hold no position overnight. | |
| My Thoughts |
Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, it looks like so though. | |
SHORT-TERM: THE MARKET IS RANGE BOUNDED BUT THE UP MOMENTUM IS WEAKENING
今天还是没有结论，SPY stuck in a range，当然，不管是resistance or support，被测试的越多，hold的可能性越小，因此明天SPY向上突破的可能性非常大，趁着FOMC，as forecasted in 01/21 Market Recap，很可能we’ll see a new high tomorrow。
当然，熊熊也不用失望，这两天market的特征就符合重要顶部的reversal of reversal of reversal，此外，如果还记得我的N vs N rule的话，很明显up momentum is weakening，因此目前熊熊还是很有希望的。
关于明天FOMC，除了今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到的generally bullish and roller-coaster show以外，intraday pattern趋向于一路走高，收盘前会有回落。下面的图来自Bespoke。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/18 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN
Since even the short-term I have no answer for whether the pullback is over, so whether the intermediate-term was topped, we’ll have to wait and see.
SEASONALITY: THE LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF EACH MONTH SINCE AUGUST 2009 WERE BEARISH
See 01/21 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-1-25 07:54 PM
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发表于 2011-1-25 07:58 PM
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