本帖最后由 ddd 于 2011-1-22 13:57 编辑
my only concern is that so many bears came out when ...
lite1067 发表于 2011-1-22 01:52 
There are three schools of thoughts regarding the intermediate-term and longer term market trend.
1) There will be the second major leg down comparable to the 2008 magnitude, and when is the only question. I recently went to a seminar by OptionsXpress, and was surprised by the overwhelmingly bearish feelings from the over 150 attendees, most of whom were "waiting" for the big crash ahead.
2) 2009 lows were history, the new secular bull market has already started since. This thought may be held only by a small group of people, but my Saturday walking buddy is one of them. And what can I say... he has been right since Nov, 2008 when he started to buy GS, IBM, BLK, and etc, and went all in with other long positions, even with hundreds of contracts of SPX futures, after Mar 2009. He held his futures to the Oct, 2009's high with a 2-3 times gain, and re-opened from Nov, 2009 and held until the last week with another 2.5 times gain.
3) Not sure whether we are going to see DJ30 < 7000 again, or < 10,000 again for that matter, and I'm one of such. I think the possibility is still there, but with the way we are diluting the us$, at one tipping point a major or even hyper inflation period should kick in within the next five years and the market will not look back again.
I've missed most part of the 2009's rally, waiting for the "inevitable" second leg down, and I don't want to be "waiting" any more. I don't have the insight of my walking buddy and still couldn't understand his drawings and angle measurements predicting the major market peaks and troughs. So what can I do? After a Korean friend introduced me AbleTrend System by AbleSys in 2009, I started to look into various indicators and trading systems and into programming (that's when I left QQQ's class). My goal was to develop a "reliable" and "intuitive" system that can track the market trend and avoid much of the whipsaws. The chart showing in the first post is one of the results and is one that simulates the expansive AbleTrend, although completely independent from it.
As for the current trend change, I do have my own reservations - mainly, the DJ30 is not showing any weakness, and that could mean a minor and short corrective move for the broader market. But my move was swift enough this time and all my short positions are in profit "guaranteed" by stop losses. So I'm risking only a little less profit if the market turns back to completely bullish next week. And I will follow the system to join the bull side again to buy the dips as soon as all "blue".
When the next time Red Dots go off, I will again quickly react. Hopefully I will avoid the major correction, if it comes, and possibly profit from it as well. Other then that I will grasp the bullish trend as long as it holds.
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2011-1-22 01:28 AM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2011-1-22 01:52 AM
Good call!
发表于 2011-1-22 08:23 AM
