01/03/2011 大盘回顾 （ISEE Equities Only Index Above 300 Again）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/05-01/07 01/04 : 01/06 Next pivot date: 01/07

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 24 unfilled gaps, the max is 24. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually? *8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped? 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped? 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is *UP. I hold partial long position overnight.

MY STRATEGY:  STOCK BOND EURO OIL GOLD Long but I will be very careful here. Long Long Long

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE ON THE UPSIDE

 

该说的，今天的After Bell Quick Summary里已经提了，很少有strong up day，第二天就fail的，因此可能more on the upside。下面要注意的还是extremes，特别是今天ISEE Equities Only Index又是在300以上，way too bullish，因此，还是那话，pullback只是时间问题，暂时维持pivot date around 01/05 to 01/12的forecast。

 

 

今天还有个top信号，就是both CPC and CPCE are extremely low。这个信号在12/13工作的不是很好，但毕竟还是工作了，因此注意吧。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

 

See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, JANUARY’S 1ST 5 DAYS IS AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

 

See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/21 L
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA		Clear breakdown below consolidation range, be careful.
CHINA Weekly	UP	Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds.
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L	TOADV MA(10) a little too high.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		Breakout, so TLT could be bottomed. Need watch the trend line resistance though.
TLT Weekly	UP
FXE		3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): 1-2-3 trend change, so dollar could be topped.
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD		Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

dreampen

Thanks! 沙发!

atrader

thanks

朱坚强

Thanks

Read0nly

谢！

pig2006

谢老大。今天早。

navybean

Thanks.

Diver

In my memory, last time warned after Tick closed above 1000, we saw Tick closed above 1000 again on the second day and again on the third day. And SPX rose more than 1% further on the second day on top of the first day big gain and more than 0.5% further on the third day.

It seems all bearish signals/rules/tricks do not work well in a strong uptrend, vice versa, all bullish signals/rules/tricks do not work well in a strong downtrend.

...
很少有strong up day，第二天就fail的，因此可能more on the upside。
...
Cobra 发表于 2011-1-3 19:31

hfang01

mikeqc

1st page again

leftright

mikeqc

恩，好像所有的 bullish edges 都 striked out 了。

square

top?

surya

Cobra

恩，好像所有的 bullish edges 都 striked out 了。
mikeqc 发表于 2011-1-3 20:07

还有POMO呢，这个比啥都管用。

Cobra

In my memory, last time warned after Tick closed above 1000, we saw Tick closed above 100 ...
Diver 发表于 2011-1-3 19:49

    你看图嘛，不是介个样子的。

wnd4

thanks. it looks more like the pattern of April.

开小差

thx,ding

jennifer

Thanks!

PacificLegend