Elliott Wave count through Wave 5 is easily and always identified by an upright head and shoulder price pattern as traced in the attach monthly chart. Waves 6 through 8, all corrective waves some are impulse (5 waves down) and some corrective (3 waves up) are sometimes more difficult to correctly count depending the type corrective pattern being traced.
RSI and MACD indicators are accurate with respect to identification of Waves 3 and 5. They also trace reverse and classic divergences as noted on chart. These divergences presence are important to confirm the accuracy of each Wave mentioned. Wave 4 is corrective of Wave 3 and always has 3 waves down (a, b and c).
Currently price is searching for the high of corrective Wave B. This wave has 3 waves up, a, b and c. Wave B/c has not yet been conclusively identified. Price always identifies each wave high or low with a fractal, Wave B fractal has not yet formed. The most common corrective pattern is the ZigZag, which has partly completed presently. The final C Wave is an impulse wave and may be extended. Wave C may nominally be expected to re-test the neck line in its retrace of Wave A and the entire previous 5 Wave pattern. Most often price will move lower than the neck line low value.
Price patterns, H&S are entirely objective. This pattern has developed over the last 20 plus years and may be regarded as creditable in regard to its predictive feature.
Comments;
Wave B is the most dangerous Wave of the EW cycle. It appears to some traders that the market is continuing to rally and move higher. Wave B can re-test the high of Wave 5 for a double top. Some join the rally only to have their feelings hurt when Wave C commences.
MACD is still above its zero line and RSI is above 50, suggesting the rally still has legs. Most recent up arrow is green.
Fibonacci expansion and retracement studies may be used to identify possible lows for Wave C and the high of Wave B.
Loren |
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-12-31 08:28 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
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喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2011-1-1 07:16 PM
