12/27/2010 大盘回顾 （CPCE Top Signal To Be Confirmed）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 12/27 12/21 : 12/22 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/27

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 23 unfilled gaps, the max is 23. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? 8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. NYMO Sell 12/09 S 2*ATR(10) Stopped out on 12/21 with loss. Reference only, not meant to be followed. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is up, but I hold no position over night.

 

SHORT-TERM: WAIT TOMORROW TO SEE IN WHICH DIRECTION THE MARKET BREAKS

 

这段时间After Bell Quick Summary的trick基本不工作，加上假日，没有什么好写的，所以先暂停After Bell Quick Summary吧。

 

象今天这种低开，然后头也不回一路走高的，是非常bullish的，基本上后面还有的涨，不过熊熊这里还有点点希望，如果明天breakdown below SPY $125.04的话。

 

 

明天还有个看点，就是CPCE，今天是不是trend line breakout，表示top了，我不sure，反正breakout后也要第二天hold trend line to confirm，所以等明天吧。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

See 12/17 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: LAST WEEK AND THE LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF THE MONTH WERE GENERALLY BEARISH

 

See 12/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/21 L
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE		The 2nd test of the previous low, so there’s a chance EURO is bottomed around here.
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

faithflower

shafa My first one!!!!!!!!!Yeah!

dreampen

Thanks!

surya

Thanks!

faithflower

I am unloading my long position, taking step by step until bear finally wakes up with a big roar.........

jWishbone

Thanks.

maomi

1st page, thanks Cobra lao da!

slcgh

summer123

greenback

dxzhu

First page,Ding

Bencat

wolfdoctor

地板

Summerrose

jcw

fara

page page page page page page page page 1.

atrader

thanks

MtlJaysFan

thanks

Bencat

Did you see VIX jumped up 7.3% today!  Why?

风信子