12/23/2010 大盘回顾 （No Santa Rally the Next Week?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 4 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term   6 of 6 are NEUTRAL   GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 12/21,12/27 12/21 : 12/22 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/21, 12/27

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 23 unfilled gaps, the max is 23. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? 8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. NYMO Sell 12/09 S 2*ATR(10) Stopped out on 12/21 with loss. Reference only, not meant to be followed. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is up, I hold long position over the weekend.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BUMP INTO SOME HEADWIND

 

下周就是著名的Santa Rally了，本来我要说Bull Flag因此还有one more push up的，不过这只是在intraday图上，因此可能这one more push up走不了多远。现在VIX的solid反弹让我有点担心，且VIX在重要的support上，因此不排除跟去年一样，下周的Santa Rally其实本周已经rally过了。

 

 

看看为什么VIX有点让我担心的理由：

 

这么根大白棒棒，if repeats最近几次的话，短期应该有几天的pullback。

 

 

VIX在重要的support上，如果再次hold的话，也是说至少短期会有一周到两周的pullback。

 

 

去年的Santa Rally，我印象很深，最后一天收盘的时候sharp drop。根据Stock Trader’s Almanac 2011, last trading day of the year, NASDAQ down 9 of last 10.

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

 

See 12/17 Market Recap for more details.

 

AAII Bull Ratio创了5 year high，这个应该很多人听说了，看看图吧，统计显示后面会比较choppy。

 

 

SEASONALITY: LAST WEEK AND THE LAST 2 TRADING DAYS OF THE MONTH WERE GENERALLY BEARISH

 

Seasonality，如果forget about Santa Rally的话，下周应该比较bearish。

 

• According Stock Trader’s Almanac 2011, last trading day of the year, NASDAQ down 9 of last 10.
• The last 2 trading days of every month since August 2009 were bearish.

 

 

• 6 out of 15 times (60%) a red last week each month since August 2009.

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/21 L
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE		*The 2nd test of the previous low, so there’s a chance EURO is bottomed around here.
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

dreampen

圣诞快乐

沙发快乐

hfang01

开小差

thx,,ding

ut1984

ut1984

skipjack

Thanks so much, happy holidays.

nanosensor

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oldfox

viper

辛苦了

maomi

Ave

XingXingZiHuo

Thanks!

PacificLegend

Forevergreen

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源济

永恒罗马

Summerrose

jinr

丛林法则

thanks