12/22/2010 大盘回顾 （False Alarm, CPCE Top Signal Not Triggered）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 4 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold partial long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 12/21,12/27 12/21 : 12/22 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/21, 12/27

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 23 unfilled gaps, the max is 23. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? 8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. NYMO Sell 12/09 S 2*ATR(10) *Stopped out on 12/21 with loss. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: CPCE TOP SIGNAL HAVE NOT TRIGGERED

 

今天没啥说的，典型的假日行情，每天小幅升高on decreased volume，明天估计也差不多，所以今天的After Bell Quick Summary就免了吧。

 

两个地方说明一下：

 

有读者提醒，CPCE其实可以画一条perfect 3 points validated trend line，这样，这个top signal应该是没有触发。

 

 

VIX:VXV ratio创下历史新低了，这个不好，意味着not much upside room ahead。一般如果大盘涨，VIX也涨的话，牛牛反而没啥好担心的，因为表示买put的多，所以既使有pullback也不会跌多少。现在大盘涨，VIX创新低，表示大家都没有什么hedge，这就很危险，一旦开始pullback，下面一点buffer都没有，因此下跌将会很猛烈。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

 

See 12/17 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/21 L
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/17 S
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

tortose

Thanks!

dreampen

Thanks!

hillcrest

thanks!

maopao

thanks!

jamesmith

wk! 刚走开一下沙发就没了...

JohnHsu

sunnysunny

班长，圣诞快乐！新年快乐！

jWishbone

Thanks. I shorted because of the CPCE signal yesterday, and was wondering why you were still long today. Now it makes sense. I will cover as soon as possible.

Jeff

Happy Holidays!

dommy

greenback

当时惘然

Thank you.
Merry Xmas and Happy New Year.

hfang01

xz214

mikeqc

atrader

thanks

Forevergreen

thank you

abracadabra

jinr

谢谢班长. Merry Christmas!