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| BULLISH |
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. |
| BEARISH |
*1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 23 unfilled gaps, the max is 23.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE trend line broken, so topped? | |
| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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| ST Model |
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Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. |
| NYMO Sell |
12/09 S |
2*ATR(10) |
Reference only, not meant to be followed. | |
SHORT-TERM: CPCE TOP SIGNAL CONFIRMED
没说的，这是valid breakout，target，根据Measured Move could go as far as 1291。我本人并不相信这个target，不过，不管有多少怎么怎么bearish的信号，只要price action不confirm，那都是白搭，所以还是骑驴看唱本吧。The bottom line，还是啥时候看我“被”hold both long and short overnight了(see short-term session in the table above)，啥时候就该减仓了。
其他没啥说的，昨天提到的CPCE top signal，今天confirm了，灵不灵，no idea。本年度还剩下的日子里，熊熊最有希望的只有两天了，12/23 and 12/31。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
See 12/17 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-12-21 07:52 PM
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发表于 2010-12-21 07:54 PM
