|
|
| BULLISH |
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. |
| BEARISH |
1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max was 23.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
12/10 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
*0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE trend line broken, so topped? | |
| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
|
| ST Model |
|
|
Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. |
| NYMO Sell |
12/09 S |
2*ATR(10) |
Reference only, not meant to be followed. | |
SHORT-TERM: CPCE TOP SIGNAL TRIGGERED BUT NEED A CONFIRMATION TOMORROW
今天market选择了向上breakout，不过I’m not convinced yet，一般经验，这种narrow range breakout，第一次多半是假的，很可能最终是往反方向突破，所以至少看明天有没有follow through吧。
今天最重要的信号是3 points validated CPCE trend line broken了，这个老读者都知道，是个非常可靠的top signal，当然，需要明天hold above trend line才算确认，所以也是看明天吧。
今天另一个值得提一下的信号是Sentimentrader Smart/Dumb Money Confidence Spread，已经是2nd record high on the chart了。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
See 12/17 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
| 
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-12-20 08:34 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-12-20 08:38 PM
发表于 2010-12-20 08:42 PM
