12/17/2010 大盘回顾 （The Next Pivot Date）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 4 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY, not confirmed though. 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold trapped long position over the weekend. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 12/21,12/27 12/21 : 12/22 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/21, 12/27

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max was 23. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 12/10 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? 8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? *6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. NYMO Sell 12/09 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, SENTIMENT IS TOO BULLISH BUT SEASONALITY IS VERY BULLISH

 

短期是consolidation的pattern，因此方向不明，耐心等待突破吧。目前从indicator以及sentiment讲(see table above)，对熊熊有利，但是牛牛有very very bullish的seasonality，所以下面要怎么走，还真不好说。我非常有兴趣看看这次sentiment能创出怎样的bullish record。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

 

中期还是维持wave 5 up to SPX 1300+的forecast (See 12/10 Market Recap for more details). 由于sentiment too bullish (see table above)，所以我越来越倾向于会有类似四月份规模的correction，现在的问题是when？我的猜测是top可能会在01/05 to 01/12之间。理由有三个。

 

• 最重要的理由见8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010，QQQQ自一月的第8个trading day起(01/12)到一月底都比较bearish，从2002年起到现在还从来没有错过。

 

• 4.1.3 Volatility Index (Weekly)，最最bullish的情况是VIX weekly继续跌（可能性很大，第四次测试support，我不认为能hold），但是注意下面的%B，看起来VIX最多还有两三周的跌幅，换句话说就是SPX还可以涨2到3周，正好在01/05 to 01/12之间。

 

 

• 第三个理由有点牵强，不过有时候就是这么巧，自TED Spread到顶日数28天，是01/05。01/05是什么日子？还记得Magic Day 6吗？看看下面的Gann Day table，01/05附近是重要的pivot date，自2000年起就有2次。

 

 

说到TED Spread，还是请大家关注一下4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I，我觉得divergence实在太多了，考虑到最近出现的Hindenburg Omen，因此应该是要重视的时候了。

 

 

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/14 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	*12/17 S
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		*Could be a Pennant in the forming, so more push up?
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L
XLB Weekly	UP	*BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

flash

shafa

源济

源济

小财虫

sf

sandera

小财虫

fs

layschips

nirvana

under these scenarios, 老蛇是否建议下 conditional order:

enter short when spx<1232; long when spx>1250?

Cobra

under these scenarios, 老蛇是否建议下 conditional order:

enter short when spx1250?
nirvana 发表于 2010-12-19 00:45

    如果你能区分是真突破还是假突破的话，有时breakout range是假的。特别是这种很小范围的consolidation range，第一次突破往往是假的，换句话说，如果周一高开，可能是假的，真正的突破会是向下。这个纯属统计结果。

mikeqc

1st page

windflower

first page, thanks

ranchgirl

老大辛苦！

lungfish

Thanks for the nice work!

skipjack

Thanks

PacificLegend

mxiu

Ding

dsp

Thanks.

bokchoy888

Poo