11/30/2010 大盘回顾 （Stuck in a Range）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is CONFUSED 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold both long and short overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 11/26,12/02 12/05 : 12/07 Week 11/26 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26, 12/03 – 12/06

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. 11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks. Stock Trader’s Almanac: 59% chances since 1988, buy Tuesday sell Friday in Thanksgiving week. 0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): Open above BB top then formed a Dark Cloud Cover, bullish short-term. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 11/22 Market Recap: OEX put call ratio surges, so top is close? 6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means more pullback ahead? 11/23 Market Recap: SPX down 1.4%+ but ISEE Equities Only Index > 200 means more pullbacks. 11/24 Market Recap: MAD right after MDD means rebound then a 2nd leg down. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 11/23 S 1.9*ATR(10) NYMO Sell 11/12 S *11/26 High *Adjust stop loss. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: IN A RANGE, DIRECTION NOT CLEAR

 

今天没啥说的，the market stuck in a range，耐心等突破吧，no idea往上还是往下。从图上看，目前熊熊占优，明天如果再次测试1173的话，最好不要指望it能hold了，因为the 3rd time is the charm。

 

 

另外，从下面的图看，虽然目前可以免强算是有2nd leg down了，不过，不是很perfect，特别是因为没有lower low，所以还没有NYMO positive divergence。我不是暗示会有lower low，只是info only，看起来可能2nd leg down还不够完备。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 2 MAJOR DISTRIBUTION DAYS WITIN 5 DAYS MEANS MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD

 

The intermediate-term is in danger of entering a downtrend. See 11/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEARISH, WEDNESDAY (12/01) BULLISH, WHOLE WEEK BEARISH

 

See 11/26 Market Recap for more details. For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	11/16 S
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP	IWM:SPX too high.
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM		*Hollow red bar on trend line, so rebound?
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	11/16 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		*Black bar, pullback?
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	11/16 S
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR		Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	11/16 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

Thirty-cents

sf???

Thirty-cents

Yes!! SF!

oldpigwang

回复 1# Cobra

Per Fast Money: mkt is going to 1150, then ?

navybean

Ave

开小差

thx, ding

源济

netfire

PacificLegend

oldfox

chickencoop

thanks

linday

trade28

thx

风之语

t-k

飞船

今天真快呀，多谢！

shoujie

阳光明媚

thanks!

can2000

Thx